Posted at 19 October 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•South Africa Business Confidence (Aug) 135.1, 125.4 previous
•South Africa Business Confidence (Sep) 134.3, 135.1 previous
•Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.2%, 2.4% previous
•Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.0%, 0.1% previous
•Canada CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.4%, 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
•Canada CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.1%, 3.2% forecast, 3.0% previous
•Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.8%, 1.9% forecast, 1.9% previous
•Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.9%, 2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
•France 12-Month BTF Auction 3.292%, 3.255% previous
•France 3-Month BTF Auction 2.750%, 2.761% previous
•France 6-Month BTF Auction 3.045%, 2.964% previous
•US NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct) 29, 31 forecast, 32 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.085% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.200% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No data ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the US dollar on Monday as riots in France added to concerns about the country's worsening fiscal outlook.Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said he had asked local authorities to impose partial curfews after violent protests across France over the weekend.The unrest is also seen as improving National Rally leader Marine Le Pen's chances of winning next year's presidential election, which could raise questions over France remaining in the European Union.On Friday, Warsh expressed optimism about US economic strength but gave no indication of whether or when more hikes will be needed. Fed funds futures traders see the Fed holding rates steady at its October 27 to October 28 meeting and are pricing in 92% odds of a hike in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1255(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1228(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1119(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.11315(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Monday as investors assessed recent US economic data and the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Market attention is shifting toward the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting and the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data next week. The PCE price index is the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge as it seeks to achieve its 2% target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 15% probability of a rate hike this month and an 89% chance of an increase in December. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the release of UK September inflation and retail sales data this week, which could provide fresh clues about the Bank of England’s policy outlook. Attention is also turning to the upcoming earnings season. Finance Minister John Healey is scheduled to deliver his first budget speech next week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3336(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3408(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3293(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3259(SMA20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Monday, supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data that improved sentiment toward the currency. China’s GDP expanded by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, exceeding market expectations of 1.1%, while September retail sales rose by 1.1%, well above forecasts for a 0.6% increase. The upbeat figures boosted optimism about China’s economic outlook, providing support for the Australian dollar given Australia’s close trade ties with China.However, gains in the Australian dollar remained limited after Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said markets were justified in scaling back expectations for another interest rate hike, following an unexpected rise in Australia’s unemployment rate to a five-year high of 4.7% in September. Markets are currently pricing in around a 30% probability of an RBA rate hike at its November 2–3 meeting, while the likelihood of a rate increase by December stands at approximately 50%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6963 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6990(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6964(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6853(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The US dollar traded in a narrow range against the Japanese yen on Monday as investors assessed comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Ueda said underlying inflation was approaching the BOJ’s 2% target, supported by AI-related demand and tight labour market conditions, signalling scope for further interest rate increases.Investors will closely monitor the BOJ’s upcoming policy meeting and updated economic growth and inflation forecasts for clues about the timing of the next rate hike. The central bank’s two-day meeting concludes on October 30, with policymakers expected to remain cautious about raising rates again following September’s increase as they assess the impact of previous tightening on financial conditions. Markets widely expect the BOJ to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% this month while leaving the door open to a potential increase to 1.5% as early as December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.56(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.16(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.90(Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 156.28(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
French equities led losses across European markets on Monday following one of the worst episodes of protest-related violence in years over the weekend.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 1.60 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.34 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.57 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices remained largely unchanged on Monday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, with policymakers widely expected to keep interest rates on hold.
Spot gold held steady ?at $4,163.65 per ounce by 9:03 a.m. EDT (1303 GMT). US gold futures for ?December delivery were unchanged at $4,183.10 per ounce.
Oil prices edged lower on Monday as investors booked profits following a rally to multi-month highs late last week.
Brent crude futures fell $1.45, or 1.32%, to $108.41 a barrel ?by 1152 GMT, after settling at their highest since May 19 on Friday.
US West Texas Intermediate crude was ?at $101.09 a barrel, down 32 cents, or 0.32%, after ending last week at its highest since ?September 17.