Posted at 19 October 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• China GDP (YoY) (Q3) 4.5%, 4.4% forecast, 4.3% previous
•China GDP YTD (YoY) (Q3) 4.6%, 4.7% previous
•China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Sep) -7.2%, -7.3% forecast, -7.2% previous
•China GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 1.2%, 1.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
•China Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 5.5%, 5.4% forecast, 5.2% previous
•China Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Sep) 5.3%, 5.3% previous
•China Unemployment Rate (Sep) 5.2%, 5.3% forecast, 5.3% previous
•China Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 1.1%, 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•China Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Sep) 1.13%, 1.13% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:30 South Africa Business Confidence (Sep) 125.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 German Buba Monthly Report
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the US dollar on Monday as violent protests in France put pressure on the euro. President Emmanuel Macron appealed for calm on Sunday, a day after France suffered one of its worst days of unrest in years, with thousands arrested and shops looted or damaged after protests over high prices and declining public services.Fresh clashes broke out in Paris and Marseille, where riot police intervened to prevent attempts to ransack businesses.Nationwide demonstrations had erupted into riots on Saturday, with a town hall torched, shops pillaged and buildings covered in graffiti as violent groups clashed with police in cities across the country.Saturday's unrest laid bare the deep anger at Macron, who leaves office in 2027 after a decade in power ?that has increasingly become defined by social discontent, a weak economy and ballooning debt.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1255(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1228(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1119(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.11315(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Monday as investors assessed recent US economic data and the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. Market participants are now turning their attention to the Federal Open Market Committee's policy meeting and the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data next week. The PCE price index is a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 15% probability of a rate hike this month and an 89% chance of an increase in December.Meanwhile, oil prices retreated on Monday from a five-month high as investors booked profits following recent gains. Sentiment was also influenced by US President Donald Trump's decision to waive certain sanctions and tariffs on Russia, a move that could pave the way for increased Russian fuel exports and ease concerns over global supply.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3336(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3408(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3293(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3259(SMA20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gained modestly on Monday, supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data that improved sentiment toward the Australian currency. China's GDP grew by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, beating market expectations of 1.1%, while September retail sales rose by 1.1%, exceeding forecasts for a 0.6% increase. The upbeat figures boosted optimism about China's economic outlook and supported the Australian dollar, given Australia's close trade ties with China.However, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said markets were justified in scaling back expectations for another interest rate hike after Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to a five-year high of 4.7% in September. Markets are pricing in around a 30% probability of an RBA rate hike at its November 2–3 meeting, while the likelihood of a move by December is priced at approximately 50%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6963 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6990(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6964(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6853(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The US dollar traded in narrow range against yen on Monday as investors digested Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda comments.BOJ Governor Ueda said underlying inflation is nearing the 2% target, supported by AI demand and tight labour market conditions, signalling scope for further rate hikes.Markets will scrutinise the BOJ’s upcoming meeting and fresh growth and inflation projections for clues on when the next interest rate increase could occur.The BOJ’s two-day policy meeting concludes on October 30, with policymakers cautious about another hike following September’s increase and preferring to assess the impact of previous rate rises on financial conditions.Markets widely expect the BOJ to hold interest rates at 1.25% while signalling the possibility of raising them to 1.5% as early as December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.56(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.16(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.90(Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 156.28(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stock markets mostly fell on Monday as concerns over the massive funding requirements of AI investments weighed on investor sentiment ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.46 % , Hang Seng was up at 0.52%, China A 50 was down at 0.04%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher ?on Monday as softer oil prices offered support, while investors assessed the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,182.30 per ounce by 0455 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.5% to $4,203.50.
Oil prices slipped from a five-month high on Monday as ?investors took profits after US President Donald Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia that may lead to more Russian fuel exports.
Brent crude futures fell $2.29, or 2.08%, to $107.57 a barrel by 0619 GMT after settling at its highest since May 19 on Friday.