Posted at 04 May 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 52.1, 51.6 forecast, 51.3 previous.
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 52.8, 52.8 forecast, 50.0 previous.
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 52.2, 52.2 forecast, 51.6 previous.
• S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 52.4, 54.5 previous.
•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (May): -16.4, -20.9 forecast, -19.2 previous.
•South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 52.6, 49.0 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar): 0.5% forecast, 0.0% previous..
•14:00 US Factory Orders Ex Transportation (MoM) (Mar): 1.2%previous.
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Mar): 0.9%forecast, -0.3% previous.
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Mar): -0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.590% previous.
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.590% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•17:50 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Monday as dollar strengthened amid conflicting reports from Iran and the U.S. about American warships in the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's navy prevented "American-Zionist" warships entering the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, state TV reported, while the Fars news agency said two missiles had hit a U.S. warship near Jask on the Gulf of Oman after it ignored Iranian warnings. The U.S. military said two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers had entered the Gulf to break an Iranian blockade and that two U.S. ships had transited the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.11%.The euro fell 0.04% to $1.17. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1786(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1708(50%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1632(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Monday ahead of local elections in Britain which could see heavy losses for the ruling Labour Party. Prime Minister Keir Starmer appointing Peter Mandelson, who was linked to the late convicted U.S. sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, as ambassador to the U.S. does not appear to be subsiding.At the same time, Britain's economy is struggling, not least because of the conflict in the Middle East that has driven energy prices higher. While war-time economic data is still limited, British inflation rose to 3.3% in March, and higher prices are expected to weigh on growth.And polling suggests Starmer's Labour Party may face a rout ?when a number of local authorities hold elections on May 7. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3642(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3669(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3547(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3505(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar eased on Monday as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision on TuesdayThe Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point increase in the Official Cash Rate on Tuesday, as policymakers continue efforts to contain inflation and maintain price stability.Market participants will also closely monitor comments from Michele Bullock for clearer signals on the future policy path, especially at a time when energy-driven risks are rising due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Michele Bullock has not explicitly committed to further interest rate hikes, but her communication has remained firmly hawkish, emphasizing the need to keep monetary policy restrictive to ensure inflation is brought sustainably under control.Australia’s March building approvals declined by 10.5% month-on-month, slightly worse than expectations of a 10.0% drop. The data highlights ongoing weakness in the housing sector, which could weigh on broader economic momentum and potentially limit aggressive tightening by the RBA. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7228(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7270(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7120(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7071(SMA20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially slipped against yen but later regained ground on Monday as markets remained alert to potential action from Japanese authorities following suspected intervention last week aimed at supporting the weakened yen.The yen climbed as much as 0.75% to 155.69 before paring gains, with much of the appreciation coming during a nine-minute stretch around midday Singapore time.Tokyo officials declined to confirm whether intervention took place last week, but sources told Reuters that authorities likely stepped in to buy yen, marking the first such action in two years.Traders continue to assess the likelihood of further intervention, with Tokyo often taking advantage of thin holiday trading conditions to step into the market and influence currency movements.Markets have also weighed the possibility of US coordination with Japan to bolster the currency . Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.07(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.70(Daily high) a break below could take the pair towards 155.40(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European ?shares ticked lower on Monday as European automakers came under pressure following threats of a U.S. tariff hike, while investors awaited signs of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.14 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.42 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Brent crude oil jumped over 5% on Monday and the dollar strengthened after Iran's navy said it had prevented a U.S. warship from entering the Strait ?of Hormuz.
Gold prices fell more than 1% in thin trading on Monday, pressured by rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran that increased inflation worries and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts, while a firmer U.S. dollar also weighed.
Spot gold was down 1.3% at $4,553.53 per ounce, as of 1140 GMT. U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 1.7% to $4,565.40.