Posted at 04 May 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (Apr): 0.6%, 1.3% previous
• Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Mar): -10.5%, -10.2% forecast, 31.0% previous
• Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Mar): 9.00%, 16.10% previous
• Australia Private House Approvals (Mar): 0.9%, 2.0% previous
• Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Apr): -0.8%, -3.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:00 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 52.2 forecast,51.6 previous
• 09:00 S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Apr)54.5 previous
•09:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (May) -20.9 forecast, -19.2 previous
•10:00 SA Manufacturing PMI (Apr)49.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events ahead
Currency Forecast
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed against dollar on Monday after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz sought to downplay a rift with Trump after a planned troop drawdown was announced. The country's economy ministry said on Sunday that Berlin is also in touch with the European Commission as it holds talks with Washington, after Trump said on Friday he would increase tariffs on cars and trucks from the EU to 25%. Merz ?dismissed suggestions that his criticism of U.S. war planning in Iran had ?sparked Washington's Friday announcement that the U.S. would reduce its military presence in ?Germany, its largest European base, by 5,000 soldiers, and repeated his commitment to ?the transatlantic alliance. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.1% at 98.21.The euro was down 0.1% at $1.1725. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1786(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1708(50%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1632(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Monday ahead of local elections in Britain which could see heavy losses for the ruling Labour Party. Prime Minister Keir Starmer appointing Peter Mandelson, who was linked to the late convicted U.S. sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, as ambassador to the U.S. does not appear to be subsiding.At the same time, Britain's economy is struggling, not least because of the conflict in the Middle East that has driven energy prices higher. While war-time economic data is still limited, British inflation rose to 3.3% in March, and higher prices are expected to weigh on growth.And polling suggests Starmer's Labour Party may face a rout ?when a number of local authorities hold elections on May 7. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3642(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3669(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3547(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3505(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar eased on Monday as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision on TuesdayThe Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point increase in the Official Cash Rate on Tuesday, as policymakers continue efforts to contain inflation and maintain price stability.Market participants will also closely monitor comments from Michele Bullock for clearer signals on the future policy path, especially at a time when energy-driven risks are rising due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Michele Bullock has not explicitly committed to further interest rate hikes, but her communication has remained firmly hawkish, emphasizing the need to keep monetary policy restrictive to ensure inflation is brought sustainably under control.Australia’s March building approvals declined by 10.5% month-on-month, slightly worse than expectations of a 10.0% drop. The data highlights ongoing weakness in the housing sector, which could weigh on broader economic momentum and potentially limit aggressive tightening by the RBA. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7228(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7270(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7120(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7071(SMA20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially slipped against yen but later regained ground on Monday as markets remained alert to potential action from Japanese authorities following suspected intervention last week aimed at supporting the weakened yen.The yen climbed as much as 0.75% to 155.69 before paring gains, with much of the appreciation coming during a nine-minute stretch around midday Singapore time.Tokyo officials declined to confirm whether intervention took place last week, but sources told Reuters that authorities likely stepped in to buy yen, marking the first such action in two years.Traders continue to assess the likelihood of further intervention, with Tokyo often taking advantage of thin holiday trading conditions to step into the market and influence currency movements.Markets have also weighed the possibility of US coordination with Japan to bolster the currency . Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.07(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.70(Daily high) a break below could take the pair towards 155.40(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares edged higher on Monday as investors drew comfort from signs of patchy progress in settling the Middle East conflict at the start of a week packed with earnings and key economic data..
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.36 % , Hang Seng was up at 1.26 %, China A50 was down at 0.09%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices nudged lower in thin trade on Monday, weighed down by inflation worries that clouded the U.S. monetary policy outlook, while markets awaited developments in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $4,588.71 per ounce, as of 0655 GMT. U.S. gold futures for ?June delivery fell 0.9% to $4,600.60.
Oil prices gained on Monday, supported by the absence of a U.S.-Iran peace deal that kept supplies constrained and prices above $100 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were up 67 cents, or 0.6%, to $108.84 a barrel at 0400 GMT ?after settling down $2.23 on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up ?65 cents, also 0.6%, at $102.59 a barrel, after a $3.13 loss on ?Friday.