Posted at 06 October 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Sep) 2.8%, 2.8%previous
• Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Sep) 3.0%,2.9%forecast,2.9% previous
• Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) 3.4%, 2.7% previous
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Sep): 46.2, 46.0 previous
•HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Sep): 42.9, 46.7 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Sep): 46.0, 46.7 previous
•UK Car Registration (YoY) (Sep): 13.7%, -2.0% previous
•United Kingdom New Passenger Cars Registration (Sep): 312,891, 82,908 previous
•UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Sep) 46.2, 46.1 forecast, 45.5 previous
•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct) -5.4, -7.5 forecast, -9.2 previous
•EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)1.0%,2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13 00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.058% previous
•13 00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.979% previous
•13 00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.042% previous
•14:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Sep) 106.41 previous
•15:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 3.860%
•15:30 US 6-Months Bill Auction 3.715%
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday after France’s newly appointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu unexpectedly resigned. Lecornu and his government stepped down just hours after announcing his cabinet lineup, intensifying France’s political crisis and sending both stocks and the euro sharply lower. The sudden resignation followed threats from allies and opponents alike to topple the new government, with Lecornu stating that such opposition prevented him from effectively performing his duties. Opposition parties immediately called on President Emmanuel Macron to resign or dissolve parliament for a snap election, arguing there was no other solution to the crisis. French politics has grown increasingly unstable since Macron’s 2022 re-election, with no single party or coalition holding a parliamentary majority. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1665(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1590(61.8%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound initially gained but early gains fizzled as investors digested British construction activity data .Britain’s construction sector contracted for the ninth consecutive month in September, though the decline was the slowest in three months. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the UK construction sector climbed to a three-month high of 46.2 in September, up from 45.5 in August.The composite PMI, which combines last week’s data from the larger services and manufacturing sectors, slipped into contraction territory for the first time since April, falling to 49.7 from a prior 52.8.Meanwhile, investors across the UK and European Union were rattled by the unexpected resignation of France’s newly appointed Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, and his government on Monday, just hours after he unveiled his cabinet lineup. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3500(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3530(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3344(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3309(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors digested the latest inflation data. The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.4% month-over-month in September, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in August, suggesting that Q3 inflation may be higher than anticipated. The Reserve Bank of Australia, which held rates steady at 3.6% in September, noted that inflation remains persistent, particularly in market services amid a tight labor market. While most economists continue to expect a rate cut in November and another in 2026, markets remain cautious, pricing in only a 40% probability of a cut next month. Investors are now focused on this week’s speeches from RBA officials for further insight into the central bank’s policy direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6610(SMA 20)., an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6685(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6339(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6537(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar climbed on Monday as the yen weakened following fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi’s election as leader of Japan’s ruling party, positioning her to become the country’s next prime minister. In Saturday’s run-off vote, Takaichi defeated farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who was considered more hands-off on monetary policy. A former economic security and internal affairs minister with a pro-expansion fiscal agenda, Takaichi is now on track to become Japan’s first female prime minister. The outcome of the LDP leadership vote could pave the way for significant policy shifts in Japan. This week’s data calendar features trade and current account figures, household spending, and producer prices, while Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak at the 2025 Paris Europlace Forum in Tokyo on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.93(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.40(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level).
EquitiesRecap
European shares fell on Monday, with French equities taking the biggest hit following the unexpected resignation of the country’s new Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.40 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged to an all-time high on Monday, climbing above $3,900 per ounce, as investors sought safe-haven bullion amid the U.S. government shutdown, ongoing economic uncertainty, and expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 1.4% at $3,940.04 per ounce, as of 1108 GMT, after hitting $3,949.34 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures for December delivery climbed 1.4% to $3,964.50.
Oil prices climbed over 1% on Monday as OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase for November, easing some supply concerns, although weak demand prospects are expected to limit near-term gains.
Brent crude futures climbed 89 cents, or 1.4%, to $65.42 a barrel by 1107 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.72, up 84 cents - also about 1.4%.