Posted at 06 October 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (Sep) 0.4%, -0.3% previous
•New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) -1.1%forecast,0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 United Kingdom New Passenger Cars Registration (Sep) 82,908.0 previous
• 08:30 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Sep) 46.1 forecast,45.5 previous
•08:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct) -7.5 forecast,-9.2 previous
•09:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 2.2% previous
•09:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.1% forecast,-0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday as traders attempt to gauge the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's policies and attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve. The Trump administration will start mass layoffs of federal workers if U.S. President Donald Trump decides negotiations with congressional Democrats to end a partial government shutdown are "absolutely going nowhere," a senior White House official said on Sunday. Fed Governor Stephen Miran pressed for an aggressive rate cut trajectory again on Friday, citing the impact of Trump administration's economic policies . The euro zone releases the Sentix Index and retail sales, followed by German industrial orders and production. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will appear before a European parliamentary committee on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1665(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1590(61.8%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Monday as traders assessed the potential economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies. Politics took center stage in global markets, particularly after right-wing fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi’s surprise weekend victory, positioning her to become Japan’s first female prime minister. The immediate market driver remains the U.S. government shutdown, which appears set to be prolonged after another Senate vote failed on Friday, while President Trump threatened further funding cuts to Democratic-led states and additional federal worker layoffs. The UK data calendar is light this week, but investors will watch Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech at Scotland’s investment summit on Monday, and S&P is scheduled to announce its UK credit rating review on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3500(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3530(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3344(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3309(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors digested the latest inflation data. The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.4% month-over-month in September, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in August, signaling that Q3 inflation could be higher than expected. The RBA, which kept rates steady at 3.6% in September, noted that inflation remains persistent, particularly in market services amid a tight labor market. While most economists still anticipate a rate cut in November and another in 2026, markets remain cautious, pricing in only a 40% probability of a cut next month. Investors are now turning their attention to this week’s speeches from RBA officials for further insight into the central bank’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6610(SMA 20)., an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6685(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6339(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6537(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose higher on Monday as yen sank after fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi was elected to lead the ruling party and become the next prime minister. In Saturday’s run-off vote, Takaichi defeated farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who was viewed as more hands-off regarding monetary policy.Takaichi, a former economic security and internal affairs minister with a pro-expansion fiscal agenda for the world’s fourth-largest economy, is now set on a path to become the country’s first female prime minister following her victory. The results of the weekend LDP leadership vote could lead to significant policy changes in Japan. The data calendar is highlighted by trade and current account figures, household spending, and producer prices. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak at the 2025 Paris Europlace Forum in Tokyo on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.93(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.40(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level).
EquitiesRecap
Japanese shares jumped to a record high on Monday, while the yen and long-term bonds fell, as Sanae Takaichi was virtually confirmed as the country’s next prime minister, fueling expectations of renewed fiscal spending and accommodative monetary policy.
Nikkei 2251 was up by 4.96% ,Hang Seng was down 0.63 %
Commodities Recap
Gold jumped past the $3,900-per-ounce mark on Monday, fueled by safe-haven demand amid a weaker yen and a U.S. government shutdown, while rising expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts also provided support.
Spot gold was up 1% at $3,925.91 per ounce by 0631 GMT, after hitting all-time high of $3,944.63 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery climbed 1.1% to $3,951.60.
Oil prices climbed about 1% on Monday as OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase for November, easing some supply concerns, although weak demand prospects are likely to limit near-term gain.
Brent crude futures climbed 67 cents, or 1% to $65.2 a barrel by 0625 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.54, up 66 cents, or 1.1%.