Posted at 03 October 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) -0.7%, 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
• HCOB Spain Services PMI (Sep) 54.3, 53.3 forecast, 53.2 previous
• HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Sep) 51.7, 51.7 previous
• HCOB Italy Services PMI (Sep) 52.5, 51.5 forecast, 51.5 previous
• HCOB France Composite PMI (Sep) 48.1, 48.4 forecast, 49.8 previous
• HCOB France Services PMI (Sep) 48.5, 48.9 forecast, 49.8 previous
• HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Sep) 52.0, 52.4 forecast, 50.5 previous
• HCOB Germany Services PMI (Sep) 51.5, 52.5 forecast, 49.3 previous
• Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 0.5%, 1.8% previous
• Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
• HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Sep) 51.2, 51.2 forecast, 51.0 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Sep) 51.3, 51.4 forecast, 50.5 previous
• UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) 50.1, 51.0 forecast, 53.5 previous
• GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) 50.8, 51.9 forecast, 54.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 Canada Services PMI (Sep) 48.60% previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) 53.6 forecast, 54.6 previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) 53.9 forecast,54.5 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Sep) 51.8 forecast, 55.0 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) 46.5 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Sep) 56.0 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 51.8 forecast, 52.0 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep) ,69.2 previous
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Aug) 1.9% previous
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% previous
•15:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) 1.4%forecast, -1.3% previous
•15:00 US Factory Orders Ex Transportation (MoM) (Aug) 0.6% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 424 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 549 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•13:20 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 13:50 EUR ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday after data indicated a modest pickup in Eurozone services growth in September. According to S&P Global, the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 51.3 from 50.5 in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion, with readings above 50 signaling growth.The improvement was broadly felt across the bloc, with moderate growth in Germany, Italy, and Spain, although France continued to struggle amid political uncertainty affecting its service sector. Hiring remained largely stalled, reflecting only a limited boost in overall demand.Markets also focused on central bank commentary, with several Fed, ECB, and Bank of England officials scheduled to speak at the farewell symposium for Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot, including ECB President Christine Lagarde and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1665(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1590(61.8%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Friday as traders digested UK business activity data and awaited remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.According to a survey published Friday, British business activity expanded at its slowest pace in five months in September, as companies and consumers held back on major spending amid uncertainty over potential tax increases in the upcoming November budget. The UK services PMI fell to 50.8, its lowest level since April and below the initial estimate of 51.9, following August’s 54.2 reading.Market attention turned to BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, who is scheduled to speak at 13:20 GMT, with investors looking for guidance on the central bank’s policy direction. Officials remain divided on whether a near-term surge in inflationapproaching double the 2% target—should delay further interest rate reductions from the current 4% level. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3478(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3505(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3311(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as markets largely looked past the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Investors appear largely unfazed by the 15th shutdown since 1981, despite disruptions to scientific research, financial oversight, and delays to key economic releases, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.The muted market reaction reflects historical precedent, as past shutdowns have typically had only a limited impact on economic growth and asset prices. Still, the shutdown has temporarily created gaps in government data, leaving traders to rely on alternative indicators for market signals. Traders see a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's October meeting as almost certain and are pricing in an 89% probability of an additional cut in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6580(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6602(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6521(Sep 26th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6500(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially gained against yen but gave up most of the ground as investors comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda left markets guessing on when the central bank will next hike interest rates.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone in comments about the global economy, lowering expectations of an imminent rate hike. Markets are also focused on a Liberal Democratic Party election on Saturday that will determine Japan's next prime minister. Markets were keeping a close eye on speeches by BOJ officials this week after the central bank's tankan survey on Wednesday showed confidence among big manufacturers improved for the second straight quarter. Deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said on Thursday that the business mood is improving and corporate profits remain high even as U.S. tariffs weigh on exports.But in a speech on Friday, Governor Ueda put the focus back on how global factors, particularly the health of the U.S. economy, could impact the trajectory of wages and prices in Japan.Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.38(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.92(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.97(SMA20).
Equities Recap
European equities looked set for weekly gains Friday, with banks and miners driving early advances amid rising Fed rate-cut expectations
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.48 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Friday, on track for a seventh straight weekly gain, supported by expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and concerns over the economic impact of a prolonged government shutdown.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,861.04 per ounce by 1128 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,896.49 on Thursday. The bullion has gained 2.7% so far this week.U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3,884.30 per ounce.
Oil prices held steady on Friday but were on track for a weekly decline of around 7–8% following news of potential increases in OPEC+ supply.
Brent crude futures were up 21 cents, or 0.33%, at $64.32 a barrel by 1220 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 19 cents, or 0.31%, at $60.67.