Posted at 03 October 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI (Sep) 52.40, 52.10forecast,55.50 previous
• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Sep) 52.4,52.0 forecast,55.8 previous
• Japan Jobs/applications ratio (Aug) 1.20, 1.22 forecast,1.22 previous
• Japan Unemployment Rate (Aug) 2.6%, 2.4% forecast, 2.3% previous
• Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Sep) 51.30,51.10 forecast,52.00 previous
• Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Sep) 53.3, 53.0 forecast,53.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 1.8% previous
• 08:00 Italian Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
• 08:00 Italian HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Sep) 51.2 forecast,51.0 previous
• 08:00 Italian HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Sep) 51.4 forecast,50.5 previous
•08:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) 51.0 forecast,53.5 previous
•08:30UK S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) 51.9 forecast,54.2 previous
•09:00 Italian Public Deficit (Q2) 8.5% previous
•10:00 EU PPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•10:00 EU PPI (YoY) (Aug) -0.4% forecast,0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 09:40 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday amid a dearth of U.S. economic data due to the Washington government shutdown. That left markets in the dark about the national job picture. Analysts said the focus will be on U.S. ISM service data instead. Investors have mostly shrugged off the shutdown, the 15th since 1981, even as it resulted in the suspension of scientific research, financial oversight and delayed crucial economic data, including the jobs report on Friday.The lack of market reaction is partly because historically shutdowns have had limited impact on economic growth and market performance. With no government reports on the labour market to take cues from, investors have turned to alternative data from public and private sources and so far they point to a sluggish U.S. labour market. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1665(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1590(61.8%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Friday as market look past US shutdown, focus on rate cuts.The prolonged U.S. government shutdown, now in its third day as of Friday, has delayed key economic data, including the non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday. Alternate data from public and private sources, showed the U.S. job market likely remained stalled in September with sluggish hiring and no change in unemployment rates. Investors are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction in October and an 88% likelihood of another similar cut in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the Fed appropriately took out some insurance against any sharp deterioration in the labour market with its rate cut last month, but needed to be cautious. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3478(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3505(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3311(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as markets largely looked past the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Investors appear unfazed by the 15th shutdown since 1981, despite disruptions to scientific research, financial oversight, and the postponement of key economic releases, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.The muted market response reflects historical precedent, as past shutdowns have generally had only limited impact on economic growth and asset performance. Nonetheless, the shutdown has created a temporary gap in government data, leaving traders to rely on alternative indicators for market cues.The Aussie’s recent gains were also supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish stance, with inflation pressures running above previous forecasts. Futures now imply roughly a 45% probability of a 25-basis-point cut to the 3.60% cash rate at the RBA’s November 4 meeting, down from nearly 100% just a month ago.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6580(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6602(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6521(Sep 26th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6500(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against yen on Friday after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda left markets guessing on when the central bank will next hike interest rates.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone in comments about the global economy, lowering expectations of an imminent rate hike. Markets are also focused on a Liberal Democratic Party election on Saturday that will determine Japan's next prime minister. Markets were keeping a close eye on speeches by BOJ officials this week after the central bank's tankan survey on Wednesday showed confidence among big manufacturers improved for the second straight quarter. Deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said on Thursday that the business mood is improving and corporate profits remain high even as U.S. tariffs weigh on exports.But in a speech on Friday, Governor Ueda put the focus back on how global factors, particularly the health of the U.S. economy, could impact the trajectory of wages and prices in Japan.Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.38(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.92(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.97(SMA20).
Equities Recap
Asian equities looked set for a solid weekly advance Friday, as rising Fed rate cut bets offset shutdown-related jitters that boosted gold and weighed on the dollar.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 2.70% , Nikkei 2251 was up by 1.93% ,Hang Seng was down 0.53 %
Commodities Recap
Gold steadied Friday, on track for a seventh weekly rise, boosted by anticipated U.S. rate cuts and shutdown concerns.
Spot gold held its ground at $3,859.69 per ounce, as of 0739 GMT, following a record high of $3,896.49 on Thursday. The bullion has gained 2.7% so far this week.
Oil prices gained 1% on Friday following a fire at one of the largest U.S. West Coast refineries, snapping a four-day losing streak, though they remain on track for their steepest weekly decline since late June.
Brent crude futures gained 61 cents, or 1%, to $64.73 a barrel by 0658 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed by 62 cents, or 1%, to $61.10 a barrel.