Posted at 01 October 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 51.4, 51.6 forecast, 51.6 previous
•Japan Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q3) 12.5%, 11.5% previous
•Japan Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX (Q3) -2.3%, -5.6% previous
•Japan Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q3) 12, 13 forecast,12 previous
•Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3) 14,14 forecast,13 previous
•Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q3) 28,29 forecast,27 previous
•Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3) 34, 33 forecast,34 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:00 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 48.1 forecast,50.4 previous
•08:00 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 48.5 forecast,49.8 previous
•08:00 EU S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 54.5 previous
•08:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 49.5 forecast,50.7 previous
•08:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 46.2forecast,46.2 previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.3% previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.3% forecast,2.3% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.2% forecast,2.0% previous
•09:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Sep) 129.31 previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Sep) 2.3% previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Sep) 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•08:00 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
•09:55 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Wednesday as the dollar eased following a partial U.S. government shutdown, which could delay key jobs data and cloud the interest rate outlook. With no resolution on a funding deal, agencies warned that the shutdown would halt the release of the September employment report and furlough 750,000 federal workers at a daily cost of $400 million. With Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report on hold, investors are likely to focus on today’s ADP National Employment Report, which forecasts a modest increase of 50,000 private-sector jobs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1775(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1850(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1746(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1668(50%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday as the greenback weakened following the U.S. government shutdown, which may delay key jobs data. Government funding expired at midnight in Washington (0400 GMT) after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a last-minute interim deal. U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the shutdown could force his administration to take "irreversible" actions, including cutting programs important to Democrats. The U.S. Labor and Commerce departments said their statistics agencies would halt data releases during the partial shutdown, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, a crucial gauge for markets evaluating potential Fed rate cuts later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3502(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3536(Sep 24th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3392(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3352(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Wednesday as investors digested softer-than-expected manufacturing data. The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.4 in September 2025 from 53 in August, indicating slower but continued growth in the sector. The RBA kept its cash rate at 3.60% on Tuesday, noting that inflation may exceed Q3 forecasts amid an uncertain economic outlook. Concluding its two-day meeting, the central bank said it would maintain a cautious policy stance while remaining ready to respond to global developments. Market pricing now suggests only a 35% chance of a rate cut in November and 50% in December, with total easing priced at 29 basis points, down from 47 basis points a few weeks ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6682(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6692(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6603(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6533(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Wednesday as demand for safe-haven assets rose following the U.S. government shutdown and weaker-than-expected labor data, boosting expectations of Fed rate cuts. The shutdown, caused by a partisan deadlock over funding, puts thousands of federal jobs at risk and may delay key economic releases, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Tuesday’s JOLTS report showed modest growth in job openings but a decline in hiring, prompting traders to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut this month and another in December. The ADP National Employment Report, due later today, is expected to offer additional labor market insights. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.83(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.38(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.94(61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.22 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell on Wednesday as the U.S. government shut down much of its operations, possibly delaying the release of crucial jobs data that could muddy the interest rate outlook..
S&P/ASX 200 traded down 0.04% , ChinaA50 down 0.31%,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.84%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a record high on Wednesday as investors sought safe-haven assets following the U.S. government shutdown, with weak labor data fueling expectations of Fed rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,860.13 per ounce, as of 0613 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $3,875.32.U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $3,887.40.
Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday after two days of losses as investors considered OPEC+ plans for higher output next month and the potential impact of the U.S. government shutdown on economic activity and fuel demand.
Brent crude futures for December delivery rose 25 cents to $66.28 a barrel by 0643 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 22 cents to $62.59 a barrel.