Posted at 30 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q2) 3.0%, 0.1% forecast, 5.8% previous
•UK Current Account (Q2) -28.9B, -24.8B forecast, -21.2B previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.4%, 1.2% forecast, 1.7% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
•German Import Price Index (MoM) (Aug) -0.5%, -0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous
•German Import Price Index (YoY) (Aug) -1.5%, -1.4% previous
•German Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 1.8%, , 3.3% previous
•German Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) -0.2%, 0.6% forecast, -0.5% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Sep) -1.0%, -0.9% forecast, 0.4% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.2%, 1.3% forecast, 0.9% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Sep) -1.1%, -0.9% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Sep) 1.1%, 1.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
•French PPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.2%, 0.5% previous
•German Unemployment Change (Sep) 14K, 8K forecast, -9K previous
•German Unemployment Rate (Sep) 6.3%, 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
•German Unemployment (Sep) 2.976M, 2.957M previous
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (Sep) 2.955M, 3.025M previous
•Italian CPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.6%, 1.7% forecast, 1.6% previous
•Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.4%, 2.3% forecast, 2.2% previous
•German HICP (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•German HICP (YoY) (Sep) 2.4%, 2.2% forecast, 2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US House Price Index (YoY) (Jul) 2.6% previous
•13:30 US House Price Index (MoM) (Jul) -0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•13:30 US House Price Index (Jul) 433.8 previous
•13:30 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Jul) -0.3% previous
•13:30 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul) 1.7% forecast, 2.1% previous
•13:30 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jul) 0.0% previous
•13:45 US Chicago PMI (Sep) 43.4 forecast, 41.5 previous
•14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) 96.0 forecast, 97.4 previous
•14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) 7.190M forecast, 7.181M previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Sep) 8.6 previous
•14:30 US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Sep 6.8 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 13:25 BoE MPC Member Mann
•15:00 U.S. President Trump Speaks
•15:30 UK BoE Breeden Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday as the greenback weakened amid concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which could delay key economic data release.On the data front, inflation accelerated in the euro zone’s largest economies this month, indicating that overall price growth across the 20-nation bloc likely rose as well, easing pressure on the ECB to cut borrowing costs. The European Central Bank reduced its key rate by 2 percentage points in the year to June but has remained on hold since, as inflation settled near its target. Investors are gradually pricing out further rate cuts, though modest policy easing remains possible.Inflation picked up in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, reinforcing expectations that the euro zone’s overall reading, due Wednesday, will come in around 2.2–2.3%, above August’s 2.0% level. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1665(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1590(61.8%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Tuesday as traders digested UK GDP data and assessed concerns of a U.S. government shutdown .U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders made little headway in a White House meeting to avert a government shutdown that could disrupt services as early as Wednesday. The U.S. Labor Department confirmed Monday that its statistics agency would halt data releases, including the closely watched monthly employment report, if a partial government shutdown occurs.Britain’s economy slowed in Q2 2025 following a strong start to the year, official data showed Tuesday, underscoring the challenges finance minister Rachel Reeves faces ahead of November’s annual budget.British GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in Q2, down from 0.7% in Q1, remaining unrevised from initial ONS estimates and matching economists’ expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3478(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3505(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3311(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate unchanged, as expected. The central bank held the rate at 3.60%, noting that recent data suggested inflation could run higher than forecast in the third quarter, while the broader economic outlook remains uncertain.Concluding its two-day policy meeting, the RBA said the board considered it appropriate to maintain a cautious policy stance while remaining well-positioned to respond to global developments. Following a quarter-point rate cut in August, markets saw little chance of further easing this week, and a stronger-than-expected monthly consumer price reading reinforced the case for waiting until the full third-quarter inflation report is released in late October. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6580(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6602(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6521(Sep 26th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6500(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Monday as growing concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown weighed on the greenback. A shutdown would delay the release of key employment data this week, drawing attention to the Labor Department’s JOLTS report on August job openings, scheduled for Tuesday. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board members discussed the possibility of a near-term rate hike, with some signaling that action could be approaching, according to the summary of the September policy meeting released Tuesday. The report also showed several members urged caution over rising inflation, indicating a hawkish tilt that raises the likelihood of a rate hike in October. At its September 18-19 meeting, the BOJ kept interest rates at 0.5%, though two of the nine board members dissented, unsuccessfully advocating for a rise to 0.75%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.38(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.92(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.97(SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares eased on Tuesday, with heavyweight energy stocks leading the losses as oil prices fell. Investors also weighed the potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown, which could delay the release of key monthly jobs data.
At GMT 12:23 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.27 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Tuesday as investors booked profits following a record-high session, while concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut capped further losses.
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,805.99 per ounce as of 07:23 GMT, after earlier rising 1% to a record high of $3,871.45 during Asian trading hours. The metal has gained 10.5% so far in September, on track for its largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday ahead of a likely production increase by OPEC+, while the resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region via Turkey reinforced expectations of a supply surplus.
Brent crude futures for November delivery , expiring on Tuesday, fell $1.03, or 1.5%, to $66.94 a barrel by 1211 GMT.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $62.21 a barrel, down $1.24, or 2%.