Posted at 30 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.058%, 2.048% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.979% ,2.007% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.042%,2.027% previous
• US Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) 4.0%, 0.2%,-0.3% previous
• US Pending Home Sales Index (Aug) 74.7,71.8 previous
• US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Sep) -8.7,-1.8 previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.860% ,3.860% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.715%,3.705% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 01:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Aug): 8.30% forecast, 5.40% previous.
• 01:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Aug): 2.5% forecast, -8.2% previous
• 01:30 Australia Housing Credit (Aug): 0.5% previous
• 01:30 Australia Private House Approvals (Aug): 1.1% previous
• 01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Aug): 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
• 01:30 Chinese Composite PMI (Sep): 50.5 previous
• 01:30 China Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 49.6 forecast, 49.4 previous
• 01:30 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 50.3 forecast, 50.3 previous
• 01:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Sep): 50.2 forecast, 50.5 previous
• 01:45 China Caixin Services PMI (Sep): 52.3 forecast, 53.0 previous
• 05:00 Japan Construction Orders (YoY) (Aug) -19.0% previous
• 05:00 Japan Starts (YoY) (Aug) -4.9% forecast, -9.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 04:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 3.60% forecast,3.60% previous
• 04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed against the U.S. dollar on Monday ahead of a busy week of key economic data from both Europe and the U.S. Ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, investors await data on job openings, private payrolls, and the ISM manufacturing PMI, among other indicators, providing further insight into the health of the U.S. economy. Recent strong U.S. economic data have tempered expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, with markets currently pricing in roughly 40 basis points of easing by December. In the eurozone, preliminary German CPI for September is due on Monday, followed by the core flash inflation estimate on Wednesday. Additional releases include consumer confidence, final PMIs, and unemployment data, while ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak on Tuesday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1665(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1590(61.8%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound gained on Monday as the dollar softened ahead of a series of U.S. economic releases that could shed light on the Federal Reserve’s rate path, while concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown intensified. The risk of a shutdown is rising if Congress fails to pass a funding bill before the fiscal year ends on Tuesday. Markets face a busy week of U.S. economic data, with daily appearances from Federal Reserve officials offering insights on the outlook. In the UK, the focus is on Q3 GDP, while Finance Minister Rachael Reeves addresses the Labour Party conference on Monday and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in Amsterdam on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3478(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3505(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3311(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as the greenback gave back some of its recent broad-based gains, but the loonie's move was limited as oil prices tumbled. Canadian government bond yields moved lower across a flatter curve, tracking moves for U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 4.3 basis points at 3.185%.The price of oil settled 3.45% lower at $63.45 a barrel on Monday on expectations that OPEC+ will approve another increase to crude oil production at its meeting on Sunday.The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3912 per U.S. dollar, after trading in a range of 1.3904 to 1.3947. On Friday, it touched a four-month intraday low of 1.3958.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3800(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3869(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3728(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3670(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar weakened against the yen on Monday as investors sought safe-haven assets amid concerns over a potential government shutdown and escalating geopolitical tensions. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with senior congressional leaders from both parties on Monday to negotiate an extension of government funding; without a deal, a federal shutdown would begin on Wednesday. Geopolitical focus remains on the war in Ukraine and the potential for increased military spending. Japan’s economic calendar this week features the BOJ’s Q3 Tankan survey, industrial production, retail sales, jobs data, and final September PMIs. The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting summary for September 18-19 is due on Tuesday, while BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a news conference after meeting business leaders in Osaka on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.38(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.92(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.97(SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares closed modestly higher on Monday, with gains in healthcare and luxury stocks offsetting weakness in the banking and energy sectors, as investors weighed the risk of a U.S. government shutdown that could delay key economic data releases.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.02percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.13 percent.
Wall Street ended Monday higher, with the Nasdaq leading gains as investors bought major technology stocks, largely overlooking concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.15% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.26% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.48% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices jumped past $3,800 an ounce on Monday, reaching a new record as investors sought the safe-haven asset amid expectations of U.S. rate cuts, concerns over a potential government shutdown, and rising geopolitical tensions.
Spot gold was up 1.9% at $3,829.63 per ounce by 2:00 p.m. ET (1800 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,833.37 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 1.2% higher at $3,855.2.
Oil prices fell 3% on Monday as OPEC+ plans to boost output in November, along with the resumption of oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey, raised expectations of increased global supply.
Brent crude futures dropped $2.16, or 3.1%, to close at $67.97 a barrel by 11:33 a.m. ET (1533 GMT) after settling at their highest since July 31 on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $2.27, or 3.45%, at $63.45.