Posted at 29 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK??M3 Money Supply (Aug): 3,159.5B, 3,146.4B previous
• UK??M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Aug): 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
• UK??Mortgage Approvals (Aug): 64.68K, 65.00K forecast, 65.16K previous
• UK??Mortgage Lending (Aug): 4.31B, 4.80B forecast, 4.51B previous
• UK??Net Lending to Individuals (Aug): 6.000B, 6.300B forecast, 6.144B previous
•EU???Business and Consumer Survey (Sep): 95.5, 95.2 forecast, 95.3 previous
•EU????Business Climate (Sep): -0.76, -0.72 previous
•EU???Consumer Confidence (Sep): -14.9, -14.9 forecast, -14.9 previous
•EU????Consumer Inflation Expectation (Sep): 24.0, 25.8 previous
•EU???Selling Price Expectations (Sep): 6.9, 6.8 previous
•EU????Services Sentiment (Sep): 3.6, 3.7 forecast, 3.8 previous
•EU????Industrial Sentiment (Sep): -10.3, -10.9 forecast, -10.2 previous
•EU????Belgium CPI (YoY) (Sep): 2.12%, 1.91% previous
•EU????Belgium CPI (MoM) (Sep): -0.30%, -0.01% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.048% previous
• 13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.007% previous
• 13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.027% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% forecast,-0.4% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales Index (Aug) 71.7 previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Sep) -1.8 previous
•15:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 3.860% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.705% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 17:15 U.S. President Trump Speaks
• 17:30 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors awaited key economic data from both Europe and the U.S. ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report. Market participants will also receive figures on job openings, private payrolls, and the ISM manufacturing PMI, among others, to gauge the health of the U.S. economy. Recent resilient U.S. data has tempered expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, with markets currently pricing in roughly 40 basis points of easing by December.In Europe, attention turns to Germany’s preliminary September CPI on Monday, followed by the core flash inflation estimate on Wednesday. Additional data, including consumer confidence, final PMIs, and unemployment figures, are also scheduled. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to speak on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1665(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1590(61.8%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound inched higher on Monday as the dollar softened ahead of a busy week of U.S. economic releases, which could offer further insight into the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Concerns are mounting over a potential U.S. government shutdown if Congress fails to pass a funding bill before the fiscal year ends on Tuesday. Investors are also monitoring a heavy slate of U.S. data and daily Federal Reserve commentary. In the UK, attention turns to Q3 GDP, while Finance Minister Rachael Reeves speaks at the Labour Party conference on Monday and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey addresses an audience in Amsterdam on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3478(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3505(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3311(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar strengthened against dollar on Monday as investors positioned ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision due on Tuesday .The RBA is likely to keep rates at 3.6% on Tuesday, but markets will scrutinize any signals on future policy following hotter inflation data that sparked bets on a pause in easing. Following several rate cuts, economic growth accelerated in the second quarter while unemployment remained steady, indicating the RBA may slow its pace of easing. This year’s rate cuts came in February, May, and August, timed after the release of inflation data. At GMT 07:44, the Australian dollar was up 0.22 % to 0.6570 against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6580(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6602(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6521(Sep 26th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6500(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Monday as investors awaited a series of U.S. economic releases that could provide insight into the Federal Reserve’s rate path, while concerns over a potential government shutdown added to cautious sentiment. Meanwhile, a dovish Bank of Japan board member noted that the case for an interest rate hike was “growing more than ever,” signaling a hawkish shift on the board and increasing the likelihood of a rate increase as early as October.Japan’s economic calendar this week includes the BOJ’s Q3 Tankan survey, industrial production, retail sales, jobs data, and final September PMIs. The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting summary for September 18-19 is due on Tuesday, while BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a news conference after meeting business leaders in Osaka on Friday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.38(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.92(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.97(SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday, led by UK-listed healthcare and technology stocks, though investor concerns persisted over a potential U.S. government shutdown that could delay key economic data releases.
At GMT (12:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.44 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices dropped nearly 2% on Monday as OPEC+ signaled another production increase in November and Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed crude exports via Turkey, boosting global supply expectations.
Brent crude futures dropped $1.13, or 1.6%, to $69.00 a barrel by 1154 GMT after settling at their highest since July 31 on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.22, or 1.9%, at $64.50.