Posted at 29 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jul) -1.8%, -2.6% forecast,0.7% previous
•Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Jul) 1.1%, 0.8% forecast,0.8% previous
•Japan Leading Index (Jul) 106.1 , 105.9 forecast,105.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Aug) 5.99B previous
• 08:30 UK BoE Consumer Credit (Aug) 1.600B 1.622B previous
•09:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Sep) 95.2 forecast,95.2 previous
•09:00 EU Business Climate (Sep) -0.72 previous
•09:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Sep) -14.9 forecast,-14.9 previous
•09:00 EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Sep) 25.9 previous
•09:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Sep) 6.7 previous
•09:00 EU Services Sentiment (Sep) 3.7 forecast,3.6 previous
• 09:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Sep) -10.9 forecast,-10.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 09:00 EU ECB's Schnabel Speaks
• 12:00 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday ahead of key data releases this week from Europe and the U.S.Ahead of Friday's jobs report, investors will also get figures on job openings, private payrolls, the ISM manufacturing PMI, among others, for further clues on the health of the U.S. economy.A run of resilient U.S. economic data in recent times has pushed back against expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, with markets now pricing in about 40 basis points of easing by December. The euro zone has preliminary German September CPI on Monday then the core flash inflation estimate on Wednesday. Consumer confidence, final PMIs and unemployment data are also due and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1665(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1590(61.8%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Monday as dollar eased ahead of a slew of U.S. economic releases that could provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate path, while the growing risk of a U.S. government shutdown also came into sharp focus. The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is rising if Congress fails to pass a funding bill before the fiscal year ends on Tuesday. This week promises a heavy slate of U.S. economic data, alongside daily appearances by Federal Reserve officials sharing their outlook on current developments. The UK's main release is Q3 GDP. Finance minister Rachael Reeves speaks at the Labour Party conference on Monday and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in Amsterdam on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3478(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3505(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3311(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: AUD/USD firmed against dollar on Monday as investors positioned ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision due on Tuesday .The RBA is likely to keep rates at 3.6% on Tuesday, but markets will scrutinize any signals on future policy following hotter inflation data that sparked bets on a pause in easing. Following several rate cuts, economic growth accelerated in the second quarter while unemployment remained steady, indicating the RBA may slow its pace of easing. This year’s rate cuts came in February, May, and August, timed after the release of inflation data. At GMT 07:44, the Australian dollar was up 0.37 % to 0.6570 against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6580(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6602(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6521(Sep 26th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6500(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower against yen on Monday ahead of a series of U.S. economic releases that could shed light on the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory, while concerns over a potential government shutdown also intensified. Meanhile,a dovish Bank of Japan board member said on Monday that the case for an interest rate hike was growing more than ever, signaling a hawkish shift on the board and raising the likelihood of a rate increase as soon as October. The economic calendar in from Japan includes the BOJ's Q3 Tankan, industrial production, retail sales, jobs data and final September PMIs. The Bank of Japan's September 18-19 policy meeting summary is due on Tuesday and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a news conference after meeting business leaders in Osaka on Friday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.38(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.92(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.97(SMA20).
Equities Recap
Asian share markets opened cautiously on Monday as investors weighed the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, which could delay the release of September payrolls data and other key economic reports.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 1.33% ,China’sA50 traded down 1.07% ,Hang Seng was up 1.89 %
Commodities Recap
Gold surged to a record above $3,800 per ounce on Monday, bolstered by a softer dollar and rising expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year.
Spot gold rose 1.5% to $3,814.91 per ounce by 0624 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.9% to $3,844.
Oil prices fell on Monday after Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed crude exports via Turkey over the weekend, alongside OPEC+ plans for another production increase in November, boosting global supply.
Brent crude futures were down 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $69.70 a barrel, as of 0630 GMT, after settling at the highest point since July 31 on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 49 cents, or 0.8%, at $65.23 a barrel, giving back most of Friday's gains.