Posted at 26 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Italian Business Confidence (Sep) 87.3,87.5 forecast,87.3 previous
• Italian Consumer Confidence (Sep) 96.8, 96.5 forecast,96.2 previous
• Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 3.62%, 3.58% previous
• Italian 5-Year BTP Auction 2.94% ,2.80% previous
• France Jobseekers Total (Aug) 3,021.8K, 3,033.5K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 2.9% forecast,2.9% previous
• 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
• 12:30 US PCE Price index (YoY) (Aug) 2.7% forecast,2.6% previous
• 12:30 US PCE price index (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
• 12:30 US Personal Income (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
• 12:30 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug) 0.5% forecast,0.5% previous
• 12:30 US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% previous
• 12:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul) 0.1% forecast, -0.1%previous
• 12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.2% previous
• 14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) 4.8% 4.8% previous
• 14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) 3.9% forecast, 3.5% previous
• 14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep) 51.8 forecast,55.9 previous
• 14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 55.4 forecast,58.2 previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Jul) 3.63B previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Jul) -3.34B previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 3.3% forecast,3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
17:00 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro remained near a three-week low against the U.S. dollar on Friday as the greenback held onto strong gains following better-than-expected U.S. economic data, which dampened hopes for further Federal Reserve easing this year. On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. GDP expanded at a revised annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2, up from the initial 3.3% estimate—a move that surprised economists surveyed by Reuters. Attention now turns to Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month rise and a 2.7% year-on-year increase for August, according to a Reuters poll. Market expectations for Fed policy have shifted accordingly: the CME FedWatch Tool shows roughly a 60% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut by December, down from 82% a week ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1786(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1837(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1715(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1677(50%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound was on track for its biggest weekly drop in a month on Friday, pressured by growing concerns over Britain’s long-term fiscal outlook and a strengthening dollar. Earlier in the week, a surprise rise in public borrowing, combined with signs of slowing activity in both British manufacturing and services and a weak government debt auction, had already weighed on the pound and gilts. Investor anxiety over the broader state of British finances was underscored on Thursday when gilt yields surged sharply—the benchmark 10-year yield rose 8.7 basis points to 4.775%, marking its largest single-day increase since early July, while the pound slumped. British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is set to present her budget in November, which is widely expected to include further tax increases as she seeks to adhere to fiscal rules and maintain the confidence of bond investors.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3478(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3505(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3298(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dropped to a three-week low on Friday as robust U.S. economic data strengthened the dollar and reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve easing. Data released Thursday showed that second-quarter U.S. GDP was revised up to a 3.8% annualized growth rate from the initial 3.3% estimate. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims fell by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ending September 20, the Labor Department reported. Market attention now turns to the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday. A Reuters survey projects the report will show a 0.3% month-on-month rise and a 2.7% year-on-year increase for August.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6593(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6687(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6521(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6469Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded in a narrow range against the yen on Friday as investors repositioned ahead of key U.S. inflation data. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, is scheduled for release at 1230 GMT, with a Reuters poll projecting a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 2.7% year-on-year rise for August. Meanwhile, data from Japan showed that core inflation in Tokyo remained steady in September, staying above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target and fueling speculation of a near-term rate hike. Tokyo’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes fuel, rose 2.5% year-on-year, slightly below the median forecast of 2.8%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.83(236%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.93(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.88(SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares recovered from three-week lows on Friday, supported by gains in financial and industrial stocks, while the healthcare sector clawed back early losses after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled new tariffs targeting pharmaceutical companies...
At GMT 12:18 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.35 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.70 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold remained steady on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP data tempered expectations of additional rate cuts, with investors awaiting key inflation figures later in the day.
Spot gold held its ground at $3,748.39 per ounce, as of 1030 GMT. The metal has climbed 1.8% so far this week, and hit a record high of $3,790.82 on Tuesday.U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.2% to $3,778.70.
Oil prices were steady on Friday, on track for a more than 4% weekly gain, as Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure prompted Moscow to curb fuel exports.
Brent futures lost 3 cents to $69.39 a barrel by 1146 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 6 cents at $64.92 a barrel.