Posted at 26 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US consumer spending data release awaited for Fed stimulus signals
•Tokyo's core inflation fuels expectations of BOJ rate hike
• Japan CPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.0%, 1.5% previous
• Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.5%, 2.8%forecast, 2.5% previous
• Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Sep)2.5%,2.5% previous
• Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Sep) -0.7%,0.4% previous
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 817.2B ,1,479.7B previous
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks -1,747.5B,-2,032.8B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 Italian Business Confidence (Sep) 87.5 forecast,87.4 previous
• 08:00 Italian Consumer Confidence (Sep) 96.5 96.2 previous
• 09:30 Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 3.58% previous
•10:00 France Jobseekers Total (Aug) 3,033.5K previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro hovered near a three-week low against the U.S. dollar on Friday as the greenback retained steep gains following stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, which dampened expectations for further Federal Reserve easing this year.On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an upwardly revised annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2, higher than the initial 3.3% estimate. Economists polled by Reuters had not expected this revision.Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 2.7% year-on-year rise for August, according to a Reuters poll.Market expectations for Fed policy shifts have adjusted accordingly. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates about a 60% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut by December, down from 82% odds a week ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1786(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1837(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1715(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1677(50%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Friday as market positioned ahead of key U.S. inflation data. Data released on Thursday showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims declined, while the economy grew faster than estimated in the second quarter on strong consumer spending and business investment.All eyes are now on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due at 1230 GMT.The report is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month rise and a 2.7% year-on-year jump in August, per a Reuters poll.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve policymaker Stephen Miran advocated for aggressive rate cuts to shield the labour market, downplaying inflation risks from tariffs.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3478(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3505(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3298(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell to a three-week low on Friday as strong U.S. data bolstered the dollar and trimmed expectations for further policy easing by Fed .Data on Thursday showed, second-quarter gross domestic product increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualized rate versus initial reports of a 3.3% pace.The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 in the week ending September 20, the Labor Department reported Thursday.All eyes are on the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, due on Friday.According to a Reuters survey, the report is projected to indicate a 0.3% rise from the prior month and a 2.7% increase year-on-year in August.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6593(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6687(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6521(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6469Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded in a narrow range against yen on Friday as investors adjusted positions ahead of key U.S. inflation data. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is due at 1230 GMT. A Reuters poll expects the report to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 2.7% year-on-year rise for August. Meanwhile, data released Friday showed core inflation in Japan’s capital remained steady in September, staying above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target and keeping speculation of a near-term rate hike alive. Tokyo’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes fuel, rose 2.5% year-on-year, slightly below the median forecast of 2.8%..Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.83(236%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.93(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.88(SMA20).
Equities Recap
Asian shares fell on Friday, with pharmaceutical stocks taking a hit after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs and investors scaled back expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts following stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data..
South Korea’s KOSPI was down 2.45% ,China’sA50 traded down 1.23% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.80 %
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. data tempered expectations for additional Fed rate cuts, while new tariffs announced by President Trump offered some support ahead of a key inflation release.
Spot gold held its ground at $3,748.41 per ounce, as of 0605 GMT, but has climbed 1.6% so far this week.U.S. gold futures for December delivery were also steady at $3,774.50.
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, poised for a weekly gain of over 4%, as Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure led Moscow to limit fuel exports and consider crude production cuts.
Brent futures climbed 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.63 a barrel by 0635 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.30 a barrel.