Posted at 25 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• GfK German Consumer Climate (Oct): -22.3,, -23.3 forecast, -23.5 previous
•French Consumer Confidence (Sep): 87, 87 forecast, 87 previous
•SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3): 0.00%, 0.00% forecast, 0.00% previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Aug): 2.9%, 3.3% forecast, 3.4% previous
•EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Aug): 3.0%, — forecast, 2.8% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Aug): 2.5%, 2.3% forecast, 2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,930Kforecast, 1,920K previous
•12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug): -0.1%forecast, 1.1% previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q2): 2.5%forecast, 3.5% previous
•12:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2): 2.0%forecast, -3.3% previous
•12:30 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug): -0.3%forecast, -2.8% previous
•12:30 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Aug): -2.5% previous
•12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 3.3%forecast, -0.5% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2): 2.0%forecast, 3.8% previous
•12:30 US GDP Sales (Q2): 6.8%forecast, -3.1% previous
•12:30 US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Aug): -0.1%forecast, 1.1% previous
•12:30 US Goods Trade Balance (Aug): -95.70Bforecast, -103.60B previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 233Kforecast, 231K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 240.0K previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q2): 2.0%forecast, 3.7% previous
•12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q2): 1.6%forecast, 0.5% previous
•12:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Aug): 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug): 0.2%forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Jul): 3.74% previous
• 14:00 US Home Sales (Aug) 3.96M forecast, .01M previous
• 14:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) 2.0% previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Composite Index (Sep) 1previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) 0 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 14:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday as traders awaited economic data that may outline the impact of tariffs and the outlook for rates.Focus turns to U.S. economic data, including Thursday’s Q2 GDP final and Friday’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge. Investors are closely watching for signs of the economic impact from the broad tariffs implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump, which have disrupted the global trade landscape. The spotlight will be on U.S. economic data, including the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures report on Friday and the final estimate for second quarter GDP on Thursday, while the prospect of a government shutdown looms large.Investors are keenly looking for clues on the impact of the sweeping tariffs unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump that has upended the global trade order. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1786(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1837(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1715(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1677(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady on Thursday as investors awaited economic data that may outline the impact of tariffs and the outlook for rates. On Wednesday, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said she "fully supported" the Fed's decision to cut its policy rate last week and expects further reductions ahead. Investors are awaiting the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, on Friday. The report is expected to show a month-on-month rise of 0.3% for August and 2.7% year-on-year increase. Weekly U.S. jobless claims data, due later on Thursday, may provide insights into labour market conditions. Markets broadly expect two more 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts this year, in October and December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3522(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3585(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3425(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3363(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed against greenback as the U.S. dollar’s rally lost steam and traders trimmed expectations for rate cuts in Australia following a stronger-than-expected inflation reading.The August CPI report highlighted potential upside risks to third-quarter inflation, though the RBA has downplayed the series’ importance.Markets no longer expect a cut next week and have trimmed November rate cut bets to 40%, compared with 70% only days earlier. Investor focus has now shifted to Friday’s release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.The data will be closely scrutinized for clues on the timing and scale of future Fed interest rate cuts.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6628(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6702(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6591(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6544(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen on Thursday as yen strengthened after minutes of the Bank of Japan's July policy meeting showed some board members called for resuming interest rate hikes. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s July policy meeting, released Thursday, revealed that some board members favored resuming interest rate hikes in the future, even as the board unanimously decided to keep borrowing costs steady. The minutes also highlighted a split in views on inflation. While some members felt underlying inflation remained below the BOJ’s 2% target, others observed that inflation expectations were steadily approaching or had already reached 2%, signaling growing awareness within the board of mounting inflationary pressures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.08(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.52(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.57(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 146.88(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday, dragged down by med-tech stocks after news of fresh U.S. import-related probes, while investors focused on Federal Reserve comments and upcoming data to gauge the central bank’s policy path
At GMT (12:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.12 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.74percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Thursday as geopolitical and economic tensions heightened safe-haven demand, while investors awaited U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,751.22 per ounce, as of 1155 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,790.82 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3,782.30.
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, pulling back from the previous session’s seven-week high, as investors booked profits following a weaker U.S. equity close and amid expectations of slower winter demand and the return of Kurdish supplies.
Brent futures were down 32 cents, or 0.5%, at $68.99 a barrel by 1204 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures lost 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $64.60.