Posted at 19 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand Exports (Aug) 5.94B, 6.56B previous
• New Zealand Imports (Aug) 7.12B, 7.27B previous
• New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) (Aug) -1,185M, -746M forecast,-716M previous
•Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.2% previous
•Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.7%, 2.7% forecast,3.1% previous
•Japan National CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.7%, 3.1% previous
•Japan National CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%,0.1% previous
•Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 1,478.5B, 208.0B previous
•Japan Interest Rate Decision 0.50%, 0.50% forecast,0.50% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 1.2%,0.8% forecast,1.0% previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.8%, 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)0.7%,0.6% forecast,0.8% previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.5%,0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
• German PPI (YoY) (Aug) -2.2%, -1.8% forecast, -1.5% previous
• German PPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.5%,-0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:10 Greek Current Account (YoY) (Jul) 0.196B previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 09:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 09:30 ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks
• 10:00 ECOFIN Meetings
• 10:00 Eurogroup Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD:The euro dipped on Friday as dollar continued to recover after U.S. Federal Reserve signalled a more calibrated approach to further monetary policy easing.The Fed resumed rate cuts on Wednesday and opened the door to further easing, but tempered its message with warnings of sticky inflation, sowing doubt over the pace of future easing.Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterised the policy action as a risk-management cut in response to the weakening labour market and said the central bank was in a "meeting-by-meeting situation" regarding the rate outlook.Traders are pricing in a 92% chance of another 25-bp cut at the Fed's October meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1824(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1755(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1713 (SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The pound fell sharply, heading for its biggest two-day drop since late July on Friday, following a surge in UK public borrowing and a Bank of England rate decision that underscored the challenges of balancing growth and inflation.Official data showed public sector borrowing from April to August reached £83.8 billion ($113.39 billion), exceeding forecasts by £11.4 billion, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.Sterling fell as much as 0.4% in early trading before paring some of that decline to trade down 0.3% at $1.351. It has lost almost 0.9% in the last two days alone, the largest such decline since July 31. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3610(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3681(Higher BB ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3524(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3499(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped against the U.S. dollar on Friday as the greenback recovered following a mixed Federal Reserve outcome. The dollar was further supported by data showing a decline in U.S. initial jobless claims last week, reversing the prior week’s increase.The Fed resumed rate cuts on Wednesday and signaled openness to further easing, but tempered the move with warnings about persistent inflation, leaving uncertainty over the pace of future reductions. In Australia, ABS data on Thursday showed employment fell by 5,400 in August, versus forecasts for a 21,500 gain, as full-time jobs dropped 40,900 following July’s revised 26,500 rise. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6658(Sep18th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6712(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6580(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6547(Sep 8th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. The BOJ also announced plans to start selling riskier assets, taking further steps to unwind its extensive stimulus program. Two of the nine board members dissented, unsuccessfully pushing to raise short-term rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. At the conclusion of the two-day policy meeting, the BOJ said it would sell exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at an annual pace of around 330 billion yen and real estate investment trusts (REITs) at about 5 billion yen ($33.95 million) per year.The move followed data released earlier on Friday showing that Japan’s core consumer prices grew at the slowest pace in nine months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.42(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.85(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.10(61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.15(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei turned lower on Friday and the yen strengthened after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged in a split decision, with two of nine board members backing a hike.
China A50 was down 0.46% , Hang Seng was down 0.05 Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.63%
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Friday as investors looked for fresh U.S. policy cues, after the Fed’s 25-basis-point cut and cautious stance on further easing disappointed dovish expectations.
Spot gold was little changed at $3,646.29 per ounce as of 0640 GMT. Bullion had hit a record high of $3,707.40 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were also flat at $3,679.40.
Oil prices fell on Friday as concerns over U.S. fuel demand outweighed optimism that the Fed’s first rate cut of the year would boost consumption.
Brent crude futures were down 17 cents, or 0.3%, at $67.27 a barrel by 0656 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 19 cents, also 0.3%, at $63.38.