Posted at 16 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jul): 4.8%, 4.8% forecast, 5.0% previous.
• UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jul): 4.7%, 4.7% forecast, 4.6% previous.
• UK Claimant Count Change (Aug): 17.4K, 15.3K forecast, -33.3K previous.
• UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jul): 232K, 220K forecast, 238K previous.
• UK Unemployment Rate (Jul): 4.7%, 4.7% forecast, 4.7% previous.
• Italian CPI (YoY) (Aug): 1.6%, 1.6% forecast, 1.6% previous.
• Italian CPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous.
• Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Aug): 1.4%, forecast not available, 1.5% previous.
• Italian HICP (YoY) (Aug): 1.6%, 1.7% forecast, 1.7% previous.
• Italian HICP (MoM) (Aug): -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, -1.0% previous.
• German ZEW Current Conditions (Sep): -76.4, -75.0 forecast, -68.6 previous.
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep): 37.3, 25.3 forecast, 34.7 previous.
• Eurozone Wages (YoY) (Q2): 3.7%, 3.7% forecast, 3.5% previous.
• Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul): 1.8%, 1.7% forecast, 0.7% previous.
• Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul): 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, -0.6% previous.
• Eurozone Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q2): 3.6%, 3.7% forecast, 3.4% previous.
• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep): 26.1, 20.3 forecast, 25.1 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Aug): 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug): 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•12:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug): 3.92% previous.
•12:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Aug): 0.2% previous.
•12:30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Aug): 2.5% forecast, 2.6% previous.
•12:30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.1% previous.
•12:30 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Aug): 2.6% previous.
•12:30 Canada CPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•12:30 Canada CPI (YoY) (Aug): 2.0% forecast, 1.7% previous.
•12:30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Aug): 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous.
•12:30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Aug): 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous.
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY): 6.6% previous.
•13:00 US Capacity Utilization Rate (Aug): 77.4% forecast, 77.5% previous.
•13:00 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug): 1.43% previous.
•13:00 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug): 0.0% forecast, -0.1% previous.
•13:00 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug): 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•14:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Jul): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep): 33, 32 previous.
•14:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jul): -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar remained under pressure ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Market focus is firmly on Wednesday’s FOMC outcome at 1800 GMT, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected, though forward guidance from the Fed could introduce volatility. In the U.S., a court ruling blocked former President Trump’s attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, adding a political layer to the backdrop .On the data front, investors await key eurozone releases, namely Germany’s ZEW investor sentiment surveys and Italy’s consumer inflation report. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1807(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1837(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1669(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1681(SMA 20 ).
GBP/USD: The pound rose against the dollar on Tuesday rose sharply on Tuesday as dollar slumped ahead Fed rate decision on Wednesday. Markets expect a 25 basis points rate cut on Wednesday, with rapidly softening labour market data being the key driver of the ramp-up in easing bets in recent weeks.Data showed on Tuesday that Britain's jobs market has lost a little more steam, potentially easing worries at the Bank of England about persistent inflation pressures.A report from the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday showed payrolls declined for the seventh straight month, while private sector wage growth eased to 4.7% in May–July from 4.8% in the prior three months. The Bank of England is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, after delivering a rate cut in August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3601(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3620(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3498(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3478(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Tuesday as markets were largely in wait-and-see mode ahead Federal Reserve interest rate decision later this week. The U.S. Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with an interest rate cut largely expected as political pressure from the White House on monetary policy intensifies. Markets have fully priced in a 25 bp cut, with a slim chance of 50 bp still on the table as Trump urges the Fed to opt for a bigger move. Markets will also focus closely on the Fed’s updated “dot plot” and Powell’s comments on how far and how fast rate cuts may go. At GMT 08:16, the Australian dollar was down 0.11% to 0.6664 against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6702(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6720(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6593(Sep 11th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6552(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Tuesday as dollar weakened ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week, where the U.S. central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates. Markets see a rate reduction of at least 25 basis points on Wednesday as a certainty, with a small chance of a super-sized 50 basis-point cut. A total of 67 basis points of reductions are seen over the rest of this year, rising to 81 basis points by end-January. Meanwhile, BOJ is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5% on Friday while signaling its readiness to raise rates again in Q4 as inflationary pressures persist. The dollar slipped 0.3% to 146.975 yen .Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.47(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.75(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 146.43 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Tuesday, dragged lower by banks and insurers, as investors turned cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s closely watched policy decision on Wednesday.
At GMT (12:30) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.32 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.61 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.08percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged to a fresh record on Tuesday, supported by dollar weakness ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,692.87 per ounce, as of 0945 GMT. It hit a record high of $3,698.86 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3% to $3,730.50.
Oil held steady on Tuesday as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and Fed policy expectations kept traders cautious.
Brent crude futures slipped 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.24 a barrel by 0819 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.11, down 19 cents, also 0.3%. On Monday, Brent settled up 45 cents at $67.44 while WTI settled 61 cents higher at $63.30.