Posted at 15 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Italian Trade Balance (Jul) 7.908B, 5.500B forecast, 5.384B previous
• Italian Trade Balance EU (Jul) 1.92B, -0.09B previous
• Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Jul) 5.99B, 5.39B previous
• EU Trade Balance (Jul) 12.4B,11.7B forecast, 8.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.997% previous
•13:00 French 3-Months BTF Auction 1.989% previous
•13:00 French 6-Months BTF Auction 2.006% previous
•15:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 3.940% previous
•15:30 US 6-Months Bill Auction 3.730% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•18:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro rose against on Monday as dollar eased as investors turned their focus to a busy week of central bank meetings, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Policymakers in Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Norway are also set to announce rate decisions, but Wednesday’s Fed meeting remains the highlight.Money markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed, though there is still a small, 5% chance of a larger 50-basis-point move.Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating after Friday’s close, citing mounting debt pressures. The decision removed the euro zone’s second-largest economy from its AA- standing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1807(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1837(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1669(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1681(SMA 20 ).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar on Monday as markets prepared for a busy week of central bank decisions, with the Bank of England among those in focus. The BoE is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its September 18 meeting, given persistent inflation pressures, while also slowing the pace of its £100 billion annual bond unwind amid renewed volatility in gilt markets.Looking ahead, most economists surveyed expect the BoE to cut rates once next quarter and again early next year.Attention, however, will be centered on the U.S. Federal Reserve, which delivers its policy decision this week. Central banks in Japan and Canada are also scheduled to meet, adding to what promises to be an event-heavy period for global markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3626 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3644(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3547(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3485(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Monday as investors positioned for a pivotal week of central bank meetings, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expected restart of its policy easing cycle.This week’s event risk is dominated by rate decisions from the Fed, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Norges Bank, alongside a packed data calendar in Europe and China. Markets widely expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, lowering the target range to 4.00%–4.25% to support a softening labor market, though a larger 50-basis-point move remains a slim possibility.Traders will pay close attention to the FOMC statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on the policy outlook, with expectations building for as many as three rate cuts this year.In the U.S., key data releases over the coming days include retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, weekly jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed index. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6702(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6720(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6593(Sep 11th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6552(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped modestly against the yen on Monday as markets braced for a pivotal week of central bank meetings. Investors will be closely tracking policy decisions across the globe, including from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Norges Bank, as well as central banks in Taiwan and Indonesia. Currency traders are eyeing the Fed’s Wednesday meeting, where a quarter-point cut is expected. Analysts say attention will center on the dot plot and forward guidance. Trading in Asia was subdued with Japanese markets closed for a holiday, leaving most currencies rangebound through the session. While the BOJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, attention will turn to Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks for guidance on the future policy outlook.Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.75(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.36(Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 145.48 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares hit a three-week high on Monday, supported by financials ahead of a pivotal week of central bank meetings led by the Fed, while Rubis gained on reports of a potential sale.
At GMT (12:25) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.45 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.25 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Monday as investors stayed cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting later this week, where a rate cut and guidance on future easing are expected.
Spot gold held its ground at $3,644.07 per ounce, as of 1036 GMT. Bullion climbed about 1.6% last week, reaching a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday.U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.1% at $3,681.0.
Oil prices were mostly flat Monday as markets weighed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, while President Trump warned of potential sanctions if NATO halts Russian oil purchases.
Brent crude futures rose 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $67.06 a barrel by 1121 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.80 a barrel, up 11 cents, or 0.18%.