Posted at 12 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Jul): 0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Jul): 2.4%, 1.9% forecast, 1.5% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) (Jul): 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Jul): 1.4%, 1.5% forecast, 1.4% previous
•UK Index of Services (Jul): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul): -0.9%, 0.0% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul): 0.1%, 1.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul): 0.2%, 1.6% forecast, 0.0% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul): -1.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M (Jul): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK Trade Balance (Jul): -22.24B, -21.60B forecast, -22.16B previous
•UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Jul): -10.16B, -10.78B previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Aug): 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.0% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•German HICP (YoY) (Aug): 2.1%, 2.1% forecast, 1.8% previous
•German HICP (MoM) (Aug): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Aug): 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 1.0% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Aug): 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Aug): 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.9% previous
•UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Aug) 0.3%, 0.2% previous
•Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Jul) -0.1%, 3.7% forecast, -9.0% previous
•Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q2) 79.3%,78.8% forecast,79.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) 4.8% previous
• 14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) 3.5% previous
• 14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep) 54.9 forecast, 55.9 previous
• 14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 58.2 forecast, 58.2 previous
• 14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Sep) 61.3 forecast, 61.7 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 414 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 537 previous
• Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped slightly on Friday as the dollar recovered from Thursday’s drop, when a surge in U.S. jobless claims and a modest rise in inflation reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts next week and beyond. Data showed jobless claims posting their largest weekly increase in four years, overshadowing August CPI, which rose at the fastest pace in seven months but remained modest and broadly in line with forecasts. Later in the day, Fitch is set to release its review of France’s credit rating, with markets bracing for a possible downgrade as the country, now on its fifth prime minister in under two years, struggles to unite over debt-driven fiscal plans.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1807(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1837(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1669(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1681(SMA 20 ).
GBP/USD: The pound edged down against the dollar on Friday after data showed the UK economy stalled in July. GDP was flat on the month, with manufacturing output plunging 1.3%, its sharpest drop in a year, driven by weakness in computers, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, according to the Office for National Statistics. The services sector, which dominates the economy, grew 0.1%, a touch stronger than forecasts. Compared with a year earlier, GDP was up 1.4%, steady from June but just below the 1.5% growth expected. Meanwhile, separate data showed the UK goods trade deficit widened to £22.244 billion ($30.2 billion) in July, the largest since January 2022, compared with £22.156 billion in June.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3580(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3492(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3404(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened on Friday as the U.S. dollar steadied after Thursday’s sharp fall sparked by soft jobless claims data. Figures showed U.S. unemployment claims posted their biggest weekly jump in four years, overshadowing August CPI, which rose at the fastest pace in seven months but stayed broadly in line with forecasts. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on September 17, with labor market softness taking precedence over inflation risks. Despite Friday’s pullback, the Aussie is up 1.6% this week, supported by stronger iron ore and gold prices, making it one of the top-performing G10 currencies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6702(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6720(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6593(Sep 11th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6552(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday as U.S. dollar recovered following Thursday’s sharp drop on weak jobless claims data.U.S. consumer prices climbed 0.4% in August, marking the sharpest monthly increase in seven months, while separate data showed producer prices unexpectedly declined during the same period. Weekly jobless claims jumped last week, highlighting further weakness in the labor market, after Friday’s employment report showed job growth nearly stalled in August. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, with only a small chance of a 50 bps move, CME FedWatch shows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.62(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.75(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.95(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.43 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell in volatile trade on Friday, pressured by weakness in healthcare shares, as investors awaited Fitch’s credit rating decision on France later in the day.
At GMT (12:30) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.07percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices advanced on Friday, trading close to a record high set earlier in the week, as mounting concerns over U.S. labor market weakness strengthened expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts this year, supporting demand for the metal.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,650.23 per ounce, as of 1027 GMT, near an all-time high of $3,673.95 touched on Tuesday. Bullion has gained 1.8% so far this week and was headed for its fourth straight weekly gain.U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.4% at $3,689.10.
Oil prices gained almost 2% on Friday as renewed worries over Russian crude supply outweighed concerns about oversupply and softer U.S. demand.
Brent crude futures rose $1.31, nearly 2%, to $67.68 a barrel by 1211 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.12, or 1.8%, to $63.49.