Posted at 12 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep): 2.15%, 2.15% forecast, 2.15% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug): 1,939K, 1,950K forecast, 1,939K previous
•US Core CPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Core CPI (YoY) (Aug): 3.1%, 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous
•US Core CPI Index (Aug): 329.79 , 328.66 previous
•US CPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US CPI (YoY) (Aug): 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.7% previous
•US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Aug): 323.98, 323.89 forecast, 323.05 previous
•USC PI Index, s.a. (Aug): 323.98, 322.13 previous
•US CPI, n.s.a. (MoM) (Aug): 0.29% , 0.15% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug): 263K, 235K forecast, 236K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (Aug): 240.50K , 230.75K previous
•US Real Earnings (MoM) (Aug): -0.1%, 0.1% previous
•US Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.3%, , 0.3% previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.060% , 4.175% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.000%, 4.100% previous
•US 30-Year Bond Auction: 4.651% , 4.813% previous
•US Federal Budget Balance (Aug): -345.0B, -305.7B forecast, -291.0B previous
•US Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,606B , 6,602B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•04:30 Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Jul) -1.8% previous
•04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) -1.6% forecast, 2.1% previous
• Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD The euro gained on Thursday after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, while maintaining a positive outlook on growth and inflation. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected, and maintained a positive outlook on growth and inflation, reducing expectations for any further cuts in borrowing costs.The ECB had halved its key rate in the year to June but has held it at 2% since, stating that the 20-nation euro zone economy is in a “good place, while keeping all policy options, including additional easing, on the table.The bank now projects inflation at 1.9% in 2027, down from June’s 2.0% forecast, with core inflation expected at 1.8%, both below the 2% target . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1659(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1711(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1578(Lower BB ).
GBP/USD: The pound firmed against the dollar on Thursday following a sharp rise in weekly jobless claims and updated projections for August core PCE, both of which strengthened expectations for Fed cuts this year.CPI showed prices rising 0.4% in August, the most in seven months, with the annual rate climbing to 2.9% and core accelerating to 3.1%. In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 263,000 for the week ended September 6, the highest level since October 2021, whereas economists had on average expected 235,000 claims. The data solidified expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut U.S. interest rates next Wednesday, and increased bets for more cuts in October and in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3589(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3615 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3496(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3435(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar rebounded from a near three-week low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as investors focused on signs of a slowing U.S. labor market and Canada’s efforts to diversify its economy.U.S. consumer prices rose in August at the fastest pace in seven months, driven by higher housing and food costs. However, a sharp increase in first-time unemployment claims last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.Meanwhile, Canada announced five major projects, including plans to expand liquefied natural gas production, that will be eligible for fast-track approvals. The move is part of the country’s strategy to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on the United States. The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3830 per U.S. dollar .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3887(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3930 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3824(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3742 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell against the yen on Thursday as investors weighed hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Consumer prices in August posted the largest annual increase in seven months, while weekly jobless claims surged, signaling a softening labor market.Data also showed U.S. producer prices unexpectedly declined in August, reflecting weaker trade services margins and subdued goods costs. Along with last week’s soft nonfarm payrolls and revisions showing 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March, the figures pointed to slowing economic momentum and strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Futures trading indicates traders are certain the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week, with about a 7% chance of a deeper 50 basis point cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.61(SMA20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.30(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.53(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.26 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares closed higher on Thursday, supported by a rally in defense stocks, as investors digested the widely expected European Central Bank decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.78 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.80 percent.
Wall Street’s major indexes closed at record highs on Thursday, boosted by gains in Tesla and Micron Technology, as U.S. inflation and jobless data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.36 %percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.85 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.72% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices trimmed losses on Thursday, remaining near record highs, as weaker U.S. jobs data outweighed stronger inflation readings, keeping expectations alive for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,632.49 per ounce, as of 2:20 p.m. EDT (1820 GMT). Bullion had hit a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.2% lower at $3,673.60
Oil prices fell about 2% on Thursday, weighed down by concerns over weakening U.S. demand and a broad supply surplus, despite ongoing risks to output from the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures fell $1.12, or 1.7%, to settle at $66.37 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.30, or 2.0%, to settle at $62.37.