Posted at 09 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) -1.1%, -1.4% forecast,3.7% previous
• Spanish 3-Month Letras Auction 1.909%, 1.929% previous
• German 10-Year Bund Auction 2.250%,2.770% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 6.5% previous
•14:00 US Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a. -598.00K previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 15:15 UK BoE Breeden Speaks
Currency Forecast
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped slightly on Tuesday as political uncertainty in France weighed on euro. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a confidence vote on Monday, plunging the euro zone's second largest economy deeper into political crisis.Financial markets had anticipated the no confidence vote would fail, while French markets face another test on Friday when Fitch Ratings reviews its AA- French rating with a negative outlook. Meanwhile, market focus is expected to shift to the ECB statement and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, where investors will look for guidance on the bank’s policy stance and future rate direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1807(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1837(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1669(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1681(SMA 20 ).
GBP/USD: The pound held near a three-week high on Tuesday as dollar softness persisted amid growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month, following last week’s weaker-than-expected jobs report. U.S. job growth slowed sharply in August, while the unemployment rate rose to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%, underscoring labor market weakness and reinforcing the case for Fed easing next week.According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing an 89.4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at this month’s meeting and a 10.6% probability of a larger 50-basis-point move.On the UK side, fiscal concerns have eased, while political noise from Prime Minister Starmer’s cabinet reshuffle last Friday was largely overlooked by markets. Looking ahead, investors will turn to Friday’s release of monthly GDP, industrial production, and trade data for fresh direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3585(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3631(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3539(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3490(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar climbed to a one-and-a-half-month high on Tuesday as continued dollar weakness fueled expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve easing. Globally, focus remains on next week’s FOMC meeting, where markets debate whether policymakers will deliver a standard 25-basis-point cut or a larger 50-basis-point move. Key U.S. inflation data will guide sentiment, with producer prices due Wednesday and core CPI on Thursday, forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year.Domestically, the September Westpac consumer confidence index fell 3.1%, reversing part of August’s 5.7% rebound. The decline highlights lingering household uncertainty despite some signs of stability in Australia’s economic backdrop. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6622(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6650(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6546(Sep 8th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6515(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Tuesday as greenback weakness outweighed concerns of Japan’s political turmoil. The yen had come under pressure on Monday after Prime Minister Ishiba’s sudden resignation, which heightened uncertainty over the nation’s political and economic outlook. The unexpected move clouded expectations for the Bank of Japan, adding volatility as investors weighed potential shifts in policy direction. Leadership maneuvering is now underway, with several contenders preparing to enter the race. Markets responded cautiously, with traders alert to possible policy implications from the new leadership contest. Renewed political uncertainty across major economies has added pressure to both currency and bond markets in recent sessions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.54(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.42(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.53(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.17 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares rose to a one-week high on Tuesday, with optimism from a flurry of merger deals helping offset concerns over political uncertainty in France following Prime Minister François Bayrou’s ouster in a no-confidence vote.
At GMT (12:15) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.40 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.38 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold reached another record high on Tuesday, remaining comfortably above the $3,600 level reached in the previous session.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,653.25 per ounce, as of 1120 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,659.10 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% higher to $3,692.40.
Oil extended gains on Tuesday, buoyed by a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output increase, expectations of continued Chinese stockpiling, and concerns over potential new sanctions on Russia.
Brent crude rose 53 cents, or 0.8%, to $66.55 a barrel by 1200 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 54 cents, or 0.9%, to $62.80.