Posted at 08 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German Exports (MoM) (Jul) -0.6%, 1.1% previous
• German Imports (MoM) (Jul) -0.1%,4.1% previous
• German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 1.3%, 1.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•German Trade Balance (Jul) 14.7B,15.7B forecast,15.4B previous
• German Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) 1.53%,-1.82% previous
•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Sep) -9.2,-2.2 forecast, -3.7 previous
• Spanish Consumer Confidence (Jul) 82.9, 76.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.020% previous
•13:00 French French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.984% previous
•13:00 French French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.009% previous
•14:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Aug) 107.55 previous
•15:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 4.045% previous
•15:30 US 6-Months Bill Auction 3.880% previous
•19:00 US Consumer Credit (Jul) 10.40B forecast, 7.37B previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Monday as the dollar softened on rising expectations of a Fed rate cut this month after weak U.S. jobs data. In Europe, attention turns to a French no-confidence vote that could topple the minority government and spark snap elections, heightening debt concerns. The ECB is expected to hold rates at 2.00% on Thursday, with focus on President Lagarde’s remarks. Meanwhile, SNB Chair Schlegel speaks Wednesday. On the data front, German exports fell unexpectedly in July due to weaker U.S. demand from tariffs, though industrial output rose. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1817(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1672(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1605(61.8%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound firmed on Monday as dollar wobbled on Monday after dismal U.S. labour data sealed the case for rate cuts this month. US job growth slowed sharply in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut next week.U.S. data begins with producer prices on Wednesday, followed by the consumer price index, key for Federal Reserve policy expectations, and weekly unemployment claims on Thursday. Preliminary September University of Michigan consumer sentiment is due Friday, along with inflation expectations. The Fed enters its blackout period ahead of the September 16-17 policy meeting. The UK releases monthly GDP, industrial production and trade data on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3559(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3603(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3397(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3350(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady on Monday as expectations of lower U.S. interest rates pressured the greenback. U.S. employers added fewer jobs in August, reinforcing signs of a slowing labor market and raising the likelihood of a Fed rate cut this month. Investors now assign a 10% chance to a larger 50-basis-point cut, up from zero last week, according to CME FedWatch. In contrast, strong domestic data has reduced the chance of an RBA cut this month and lowered November easing odds to 80% from nearly 100%. Australia’s calendar is light, with attention on building permits, housing approvals, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and an RBA speech. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6586(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6625(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6549(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6515(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as Japan’s currency came under pressure from rising political uncertainty following Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation on Sunday. The sudden departure has raised questions over the country’s policy direction, with investors closely monitoring the leadership race. Market focus has turned to potential successors such as LDP veteran Sanae Takaichi, who has openly criticized the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hikes and is seen as favoring looser fiscal and monetary policies. Meanwhile, the yen showed little reaction to stronger economic data, as revised Cabinet Office figures revealed Japan’s GDP expanded at an annualized 2.2% in the April–June quarter, significantly faster than initial estimates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.58(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.16(Sep3rd high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.53(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 146.73 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Monday, kicking off a busy week expected to be dominated by France’s political uncertainty as the country prepares to seek its fifth prime minister in three years.
At GMT (12:25) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.42 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged past $3,600 for the first time on Monday, extending its rally as weak U.S. jobs data strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut next week.
Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,617.79 per ounce at 1209 GMT after hitting a record high of $3,622.07 earlier in the session.
Oil prices rose by more than $1 on Monday, recovering part of last week’s losses, as markets viewed OPEC+’s output increase as modest while concerns over potential new sanctions on Russian crude added further support.
Brent crude climbed $1.45, or 2.2%, to $66.95 a barrel by 1200 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.36, or 2.2%, to $63.23 a barrel.