Posted at 08 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Adjusted Current Account (Jul): 1.88T, 2.60T forecast, 2.40T previous
• Japan Bank Lending (YoY) (Aug): 3.6%, 3.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
• Japan Current Account n.s.a. (Jul): 2.684T, 3.366T forecast, 1.348T previous
• Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
• Japan GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q2): 2.2%, 1.0% forecast, -0.2% previous
• Japan GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q2): 0.6%, 1.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
• Japan GDP External Demand (QoQ) (Q2): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, -0.8% previous
• Japan JPY GDP Price Index (YoY) (Q2): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.3% previous
• Japan JPY GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (Q2): 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Jul): -8.2%, -8.2% forecast, 12.2% previous
•Australia Private House Approvals (Jul): 1.1%, 1.1% forecast, -2.0% previous
•China Exports (Aug): 4.80M, 8.00M previous
•China Imports (Aug): 1.70M, 4.80M previous
•China Trade Balance (Aug): 732.70B, 750.00B forecast, 705.10B previous
•China Exports (YoY) (Aug): 4.4%, 5.0% forecast, 7.2% previous
•China Imports (YoY) (Aug): 1.3%, 3.0% forecast, 4.1% previous
•China Trade Balance (USD) (Aug): 102.33B, 99.40B forecast, 98.24B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Sep) -2.2 forecast, -3.7 previous
•11:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Jul) 76.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro inched up on Monday as dollar softened on mounting expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month following a weaker-than-expected jobs report last week.In Europe, a no-confidence vote that could topple France'sminority government and trigger snap elections will set the tone for markets concerned about growing public debt burdens globally.The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.00%on Thursday, with LSEG pricing indicating almost no likelihood of any change. Market focus will be on the tone of the ECB statement and President Christine Lagarde's press conference.Germany publishes industrial production, trade and final August inflation data. Swiss National Bank Chair Martin Schlegel speaks Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1817(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1672(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1605(61.8%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Monday as dollar wobbled on Monday after dismal U.S. labour data sealed the case for rate cuts this month. US job growth slowed sharply in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut next week.U.S. data begins with producer prices on Wednesday, followed by the consumer price index, key for Federal Reserve policy expectations, and weekly unemployment claims on Thursday. Preliminary September University of Michigan consumer sentiment is due Friday, along withinflation expectations. The Fed enters its blackout period ahead of the September 16-17 policy meeting. The UK releases monthly GDP, industrial productionand trade data on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3559(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3603(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3397(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3350(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady on Monday as the heightened prospect of lower U.S. interest rates weighed on the greenback.US employers added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, highlighting a slowdown in the labor market and increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates later this month.Following the report, investors increased expectations of a larger 50-basis-point rate cut from the Fed later this month, now assigning a 10% probability to such a move, up from zero just a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected domestic economic data has reduced the likelihood of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia this month and lowered the probability of a November easing to 80% from nearly 100%.Australia’s economic calendar is light this week, with focus on building permits, housing approvals, consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and a speech from an RBA official. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6586(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6625(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6549(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6515(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against the yen on Monday as yen weakened on heightened political uncertainty in Japan after PM Ishiba resigned. Japan’s Ishiba resigned on Sunday, triggering potential policy uncertainty for the world’s fourth-largest economy. Investors are watching closely for the possibility that Ishiba could be succeeded by a supporter of looser fiscal and monetary policies, such as LDP veteran Sanae Takaichi, who has been critical of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes. The yen showed little reaction on Monday to data showed that Japan’s economy grew much faster than initially estimated in the second quarter. Japan’s GDP grew at an annualised pace of 2.2% in the April–June quarter, revised Cabinet Office data showed on Monday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.58(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.16(Sep3rd high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.53(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 146.73 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Stocks across emerging Asia advanced Monday, led by Indonesia, Taiwan, and South Korea, after poor U.S. employment data reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut and regional political tensions eased.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.45% ,China’sA50 traded down 0.17% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.62%
Commodities Recap
Gold remained steady near record highs on Monday, edging closer to the critical $3,600 mark, supported by growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month after last week’s weaker-than-expected jobs report.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,593.79 per ounce, as of 0641 GMT. Bullion rose to a record high of $3,599.89 on Friday.
Oil prices rose over 1% on Monday, recovering part of last week’s losses, as the potential for additional sanctions on Russian crude following an overnight strike in Ukraine outweighed OPEC+’s planned production increase.
Brent crude climbed 80 cents, or 1.2%, to $66.30 a barrel by 0345 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 75 cents, or 1.2%, to $62.62 a barrel.