Posted at 05 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 1.3%, 1.2% forecast, 1.3% previous
•UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 2.2%, 2.0% forecast, 2.5% previous
•UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 1.1%, 1.3% forecast, 0.9% previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.6%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul) -2.9%, 0.5% forecast, -0.2% previous
•French Current Account (Jul) -2.50B, -2.30B previous
•French Exports (Jul) 52.1B, 50.8B previous
•French Imports (Jul) 57.7B, 58.0B previous
•French Reserve Assets Total (Aug) 304,802.0M, 303,040.0M previous
•French Trade Balance (Jul) -5.6B, -7.3B forecast, -7.2B previous
•Swiss Foreign Reserves (USD) (Aug) 715.1B, 716.5B previous
•Swiss SECO Consumer Climate (Aug) -40, -37 forecast, -33 previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q2) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, 0.7% previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q2) 169,778.7K, 169,860.6K forecast, 169,794.4K previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.5%, 1.4% forecast, 1.5% previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Aug) 3.7% forecast, 3.9% previous
•12:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Aug) 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
•12:30 US Government Payrolls (Aug) -10.0K previous
•12:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Aug) -5K forecast, -11K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) 75K forecast, 73K previous
•12:30 US Participation Rate (Aug) 62.2% previous
•12:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) 75K forecast, 83K previous
•12:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Aug) 7.9% previous
•12:30 US Unemployment Rate (Aug) 4.3% forecast, 4.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Aug) 3.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Employment Change (Aug) 4.9K forecast, -40.8K previous
•12:30 Canada Full Employment Change (Aug) -51.0K previous
•12:30 Canada Part Time Employment Change (Aug) 10.3K previous
•12:30 Canada Participation Rate (Aug) 65.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (Aug) 7.0% forecast, 6.9% previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Aug) 54.6 previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Aug) 53.1 forecast, 55.8 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 411 forecast, 412 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 536 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as dollar weakened ahead of key U.S. employment data that could strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Thursday’s figures showed higher-than-expected U.S. jobless claims, setting the stage for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which economists forecast will add 75,000 jobs in August, up from 73,000 in July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had already reinforced rate cut speculation with an unexpectedly dovish speech at last month's Fed symposium in Jackson Hole. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut later this month have surged, with CME FedWatch showing near-certain odds, rising from 87% last week to almost 100%.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1692(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1741(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1576 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1453(61.8%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, supported by stronger-than-expected UK retail sales in July. Monthly retail volumes rose 0.6%, beating the 0.2% forecast, helped by favorable weather and the women’s European soccer championship. However, annual retail growth was slightly below expectations at 1.1%, and sales over the three months to July fell 0.6% after revisions. The data indicates resilient consumer spending in July, though broader trends remain muted, keeping focus on the Bank of England’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3559(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3603(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3397(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3350(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Friday as greenback weakened ahead of key U.S. jobs data, expected to support the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The August payrolls report is forecast to show 75,000 new jobs, up from July’s 73,000. Fed officials have cited labor market weakness in favoring rate cuts, fueling near-term rate cut expectations. CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders see almost a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the September 17 Fed meeting. Meanwhile, stronger domestic economic data this week has led investors to reduce bets on future RBA rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6576(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6649(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6497(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6441(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Friday as expectations mounted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month. Investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, with economists projecting 75,000 jobs added in August, following a 73,000 increase in July. Meanwhile, Japan reported that real wages rose 0.5% year-on-year in Julythe first gain in seven monthssupported by seasonal bonuses, which increased 7.9%. Household spending in Japan also expanded for the third consecutive month, climbing 1.4% YoY, though this fell short of the 2.3% median forecast. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.58(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.16(Sep3rd high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.53(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 146.73 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European equities climbed in early Friday trading, with long-term bond yields easing, as hopes for U.S. rate cuts outweighed concerns over fiscal deficits in several countries.
At GMT (12:15) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were set for their biggest weekly gain in three months on Friday, having surged past $3,500 per ounce, as traders braced for a key U.S. jobs report that could boost expectations of a Fed interest rate cut supporting bullion.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,554.80 per ounce as of 11:13 GMT. Prices are up 3% so far this week, having hit a record $3,578.50 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.1% at $3,610.30.
Oil fell for a third session on Friday, set for its first weekly loss in three weeks amid rising supply expectations and a surprise U.S. crude inventory increase.
Brent crude futures fell 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.64 a barrel by 0810 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $63.15.For the week, Brent is down 2.2% and WTI down 1.3%.