Posted at 05 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jul) -2.6%,0.3% previous
•Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.8%,0.8% previous
•Japan Leading Index (Jul) 105.9 , 105.8 forecast,105.6 previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.5%, 0.4% forecast,0.6% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 1.3%,1.2% forecast,1.3% previous
• UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 2.2%, 2.0% forecast,2.5% previous
• UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Aug)0.3%,0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
• UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)1.1%,1.3% forecast,0.9% previous
• UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.6%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 Greece GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.00% previous
•09:00 Greece Greek GDP (YoY) (Q2) 2.2% previous
•09:00 EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q2) 0.7% forecast,0.7% previous
•09:00 EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) 0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•09:00 EU Employment Overall (Q2) 169,860.6K forecast,169,794.4K previous
•09:00 EU GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.1% forecast,0.6% previous
•09:00 EU GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.4% forecast,1.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro inched up on Friday as traders awaited key U.S. employment figures that could reinforce expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.Data released Thursday showed U.S. jobless claims came in higher than expected, setting the stage for Friday’s more significant nonfarm payrolls report. Economists surveyed anticipate August payrolls to rise by 78,000 jobs, following a 73,000 increase in July.Market participants are increasingly pricing in a near-certain Fed rate cut later this month, with CME FedWatch showing expectations have risen from 87% a week ago to almost 100%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1692(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1741(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1576 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1453(61.8%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound gained ground against the U.S. dollar on Friday, supported by stronger-than-expected UK retail sales in July. Retail volumes rose 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing economists’ forecast of a 0.2% increase, according to the Office for National Statistics.The boost was driven in part by favorable weather and the women’s European soccer championship. However, annual growth in retail sales came in slightly below expectations at 1.1%, and sales over the three months to July declined 0.6% after revisions to prior months’ data. The data suggests that the consumer spending showed resilience in July, broader annual trends remain subdued, keeping markets attentive to the Bank of England’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3559(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3603(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3397(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3350(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Friday as traders awaited key U.S. jobs data expected to firm up the case for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.The upcoming U.S. payrolls report is forecast to show job growth of 78,000 in August versus 73,000 in July.Fed policymakers have highlighted labor market weakness in advocating for rate cuts, boosting bets on a near-term rate move. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders expect with near 100% probability a 25-basis-point cut at the September 17 Fed meeting.Domestically, stronger-than-expected economic data this week has prompted investors to scale back bets on future RBA rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6576(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6649(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6497(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6441(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Friday amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut later this month. Market attention is now focused on the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, with economists forecasting 78,000 jobs added in August, following July’s 73,000 increase.In Japan, fresh data showed real wages turned positive in July for the first time in seven months, supported by seasonal bonuses. Inflation-adjusted wages rose 0.5% year-on-year, with bonuses and special payments up 7.9%, according to labor ministry figures.Household spending in Japan also grew for the third consecutive month, rising 1.4% YoY in July, though this fell short of the 2.3% median forecast, the internal affairs ministry reported. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.58(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.16(Sep3rd high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.53(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 146.73 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian equities rose Friday alongside Wall Street’s record-setting close, while Treasury yields fell to four-month lows as markets priced in a likely Fed rate cut ahead of U.S. jobs data.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.13% ,China’sA50 traded up 1.38% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.09 %
Commodities Recap
Gold inched higher on Friday, poised for its best weekly gain in three months, as expectations of Fed easing bolstered bullion and traders awaited U.S. employment data.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,548.09 per ounce, as of 0741 GMT. Bullion has risen 2.9% so far this week.U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.1% to $3,608.90.
Oil prices fell for a third consecutive session on Friday, on track for their first weekly loss in three weeks, as rising supply expectations and a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories weighed on demand sentiment.
Brent crude futures fell 19 cents, or 0.28%, to $66.80 a barrel by 0642 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 23 cents, or 0.36%, to $63.25.