Posted at 04 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Aug) 2.8%, 2.7% previous
• Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
• HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Aug) 47.7, 48.3 previous
• HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Aug) 46.0, 46.3 previous
• HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Aug) 46.7, 39.7 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Aug) 46.7, 44.7 previous
• UK Car Registration (YoY) (Aug) -2.0%, -5.0% previous
• UK United Kingdom New Passenger Cars Registration (Aug) 82,908, 140,154 previous
• UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug) 45.5, 45.2 forecast, 44.3 previous
• EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 2.2%, 2.4% forecast, 3.5% previous
• EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.5%, -0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,960K forecast, 1,954K previous
•12:30 US Exports (Jul) 277.30B previous
•12:30 US Imports (Jul) 337.50B previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 230K forecast, 229K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 228.50K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 2.8% forecast, 2.4% previous
•12:30 US Trade Balance (Jul) -77.70B forecast, -60.20B previous
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 1.2% forecast, 1.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Exports (Jul) 61.74B previous
•12:30 Canada Imports (Jul) 67.60B previous
•12:30 Canada Trade Balance (Jul) -5.20B forecast, -5.86B previous
•13:00 Canada Leading Index (MoM) (Aug) 0.15% previous
•13:30 Canada Services PMI (MoM) (Aug) 49.30% previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) 55.4 forecast, 55.1 previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) 55.4 forecast, 55.7 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Aug) 52.6 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Aug) 46.4 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Aug) 50.3 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 50.9 forecast, 50.1 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug) 69.9 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 54B forecast, 18B previous
• Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD The euro edged lower on Thursday U.S. dollar held firm as investors grappled with a fragile bond market and weakening labor market data, which strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this month. Much of this week’s attention has been on the bond market, where long-term yields have risen globally as investors grow increasingly concerned about the fiscal health of major economies from Japan to Britain and the United States. Friday’s pivotal jobs report will guide expectations for near-term Fed policy, after Wednesday’s data showed U.S. job openings dropped to a 10-month low in July, while layoffs stayed relatively muted. Traders are now pricing in roughly a 97% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month, up from 89% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch data . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1659(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1711(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1578(Lower BB ).
GBP/USD: The pound eased against the dollar on Thursday as investor concerns over Britain’s fiscal situation and the government’s ability to manage it rattled the bond market. Yields on 30-year British government bonds, or gilts, briefly hit their highest levels since 1998 amid a broader selloff that has weighed on long-dated debt across major economies.Typically, higher yields support the pound, but when rising borrowing costs reflect inflation concerns rather than optimism about long-term growth, the currency tends to weaken.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted on Wednesday that interest rates in the U.K. are likely to continue falling, though the pace of cuts remains uncertain. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3549(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3588(Aug 14th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3439(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3396(SMA20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday as markets positioned for Friday’s crucial U.S. jobs report, which is expected to influence the near-term interest rate outlook. According to a Reuters poll, August non-farm payrolls are projected to rise by 78,000 jobs, up from 73,000 in July. Several Federal Reserve officials noted that ongoing labor market concerns continue to support the view that rate cuts remain likely, reinforcing expectations of imminent policy easing.Traders are currently pricing in a 96.6% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6523(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6590(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.64898(Sep 2ndlow), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6436(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar held firm against the yen on Thursday as yen continued to weaken amid uncertainty over the timing and pace of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes.The Bank of Japan ended its decade-long stimulus program last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January, signaling confidence that Japan was nearing a sustainable 2% inflation target.Although consumer inflation has remained above the BOJ’s target for more than three years, Governor Kazuo Ueda has pledged a gradual approach to rate hikes amid uncertainty over the effects of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy.However, persistently high food inflation and the potential for sustained wage growth have prompted some BOJ board members to caution that second-round price effects may justify another rate hike.Nearly two-thirds of economists surveyed in August anticipate that the BOJ will implement another rate hike later this year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.30(SMA20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.30(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.53(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.26 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares steadied on Thursday as investors remained cautious amid volatility in the bond market, with the travel and leisure sector pressured by a disappointing forecast from British budget airline Jet2.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.64 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.15percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Thursday, retreating from a record high as investors booked profits, while focus shifted to U.S. jobs data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $3,541.78 per ounce as of 1041 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery dipped 1% to $3,600.90.
Oil prices dropped 1.5% on Thursday, extending a more than 2% decline from the previous session, as investors awaited a weekend OPEC+ meeting where producers are expected to discuss further increases in output targets.
Brent crude fell $1, or 1.5%, to $66.59 a barrel by 1104 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed $1, or 1.6%, to $62.95 a barrel.