Posted at 04 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 1,419.8B,-167.2B previous
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks -785.7B ,-496.2B previous
•Australia Exports (MoM) 3.3%, 6.3% previous
•Australia (MoM) -1.3%, -1.5% previous
•Australia Trade Balance 7.310B, 4.880B forecast,5.366B previous
•Japan 30-Year JGB Auction 3.264%, 3.089% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:30 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug) 45.2 forecast,ast, 44.3 prev
•08:40 Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction 2.166% previous
•08:40 Spanish 7-Years Obligacion Auction 2.720% previous
•09:00 Greek Quarterly Unemployment Rate (Q2) 10.4% previous
•09:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•09:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 2.4% forecast, 3.1% previous
• Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD The euro edged lower on Thursday as investors navigated bond market volatility and assessed data indicating a weakening labor market, which strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Friday’s pivotal jobs report will guide expectations for near-term Fed policy, after Wednesday’s data showed U.S. job openings dropped to a 10-month low in July, while layoffs stayed relatively muted. Traders are now pricing in roughly a 97% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month, up from 89% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch data. Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) is scheduled to release Construction PMI data for Germany and the Eurozone, while the European Union will publish its retail sales report. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1659(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1711(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1578(Lower BB ).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as investors awaited Friday’s key U.S. jobs data. On Wednesday, the U.S. Labor Department reported that job openings fell more than expected to 7.181 million in July. Several Federal Reserve officials noted that concerns over the labor market continue to support expectations of imminent rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller added that he believes the central bank should lower rates at its next meeting later this month.Market attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls, which could provide further clarity on the Fed’s policy direction. Traders are currently pricing in a 99.7% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3549(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3588(Aug 14th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3439(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3396(SMA20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday as market geared up for Friday's crucial jobs report that will set the tone for the near-term rate outlook.Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report is expected to show an increase of 78,000 jobs in August, compared with a gain of 73,000 in July, according to a Reuters poll. Several Federal Reserve officials noted that concerns over the labour market continue to support their view that rate cuts remain on the horizon, reinforcing expectations of an imminent policy easing.Traders are currently pricing in a 96.6% probability of an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6523(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6590(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.64898(Sep 2ndlow), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6436(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar held firm against the yen on Thursday as yen continued to weaken amid uncertainty over the timing and pace of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes.The Bank of Japan ended its decade-long stimulus program last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January, signaling confidence that Japan was nearing a sustainable 2% inflation target.Although consumer inflation has remained above the BOJ’s target for more than three years, Governor Kazuo Ueda has pledged a gradual approach to rate hikes amid uncertainty over the effects of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy.However, persistently high food inflation and the potential for sustained wage growth have prompted some BOJ board members to caution that second-round price effects may justify another rate hike.Nearly two-thirds of economists surveyed in August anticipate that the BOJ will implement another rate hike later this year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.30(SMA20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.30(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.53(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.26 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks inched higher on Thursday as weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this month.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.52% ,China’sA50 traded down 1.24% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.48 %
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Thursday as investors took profits following the metal’s record-high rally amid growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, while awaiting Friday’s key U.S. jobs report.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,538.56 per ounce as of 0637 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery dipped 1.1% to $3,596.20.
Oil prices fell 1% on Thursday, continuing a decline of over 2% from the previous session, as markets anticipated a weekend OPEC+ meeting where producers may discuss further increases.
Brent crude fell 62 cents, or 1%, to $66.96 a barrel by 0641 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 64 cents, or 1%, to $63.33 a barrel.