Posted at 02 September 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Government Budget Balance (Jul): -142.0B, -107.2B forecast, -100.4B previous
• Spanish Unemployment Change (Aug): 21.9K, 14.2K forecast, -1.4K previous
• Spanish 12-Month Letras Auction: 1.986% , 1.945% previous
• Spanish 6-Month Letras Auction: 1.958% , 1.932% previous
• Italian PPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.5%, 1.4% previous
• Italian PPI (YoY) (Jul): 1.6% , 2.4% previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Aug): 2.3%, 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.3% , -0.2% previous
• EU CPI (YoY) (Aug): 2.1%, 2.1% forecast, 2.0% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.2% , 0.0% previous
• EU CPI, n.s.a (Aug): 129.32 , 129.12 previous
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Aug): 2.3% , 2.4% previous
• EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Aug): 0.3%, -0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug): 46.1 previous
• 13:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug): 53.3 forecast, 49.8 previous
• 14:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jul): , -0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
• 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug): 43.4 previous
• 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Aug): 47.1 previous
• 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug): 49.0 forecast, 48.0 previous
• 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug): 65.1 forecast, 64.8 previous
• 14:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (Aug): , 16.40M previous
• 14:10 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Sep): 51.8 forecast, 50.9 previous
• 15:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index: -0.3% previous
• 15:00 US Milk Auctions: 4,291.0 previous
• 15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction: 4.100% previous
• 15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.915% previous
• 17:00 US 52-Week Bill Auction: 3.760% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro weakened on Tuesday as the dollar regained some ground ahead of key U.S. economic data that could influence expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Markets currently price in an 89% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction, though upcoming data this week may affect whether the Fed considers a larger adjustment.Attention will be on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, with JOLTS job openings and ADP private payrolls released earlier in the week providing insights into labor market conditions central to the Fed’s policy decisions.In Europe, investors will watch a busy data calendar, including eurozone unemployment, flash HICP inflation for August, producer prices, retail sales, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. Germany is also set to release final PMIs and industrial orders.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1744(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1798(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1643(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1542(50%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped sharply lower against the dollar on Tuesday as sterling came under pressure amid UK fiscal concerns. The pressure on British assets came a day after Prime Minister Keir Starmer reshuffled his top team of advisers, moving finance minister Rachel Reeves's deputy Darren Jones into Downing Street to better coordinate delivery across government. UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to raise taxes in the autumn budget to stay on track with fiscal targets, a move that could complicate efforts to accelerate economic growth.UK borrowing costs are the highest among G7 nations, pushed up in recent years by stubborn inflation and mounting public debt.Delays in spending cuts, including welfare reforms, have fueled concerns over how Reeves will balance repairing public finances with her push to boost growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3549(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3588(Aug 14th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3439(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3396(SMA20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Tuesday as economic data pointed to only modest growth, strengthening expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) easing. Australia’s Q2 current account deficit narrowed to A$13.7B from A$14.1B in Q1, outperforming forecasts of A$16.08B. Net exports contributed just 0.1 percentage point to GDP, while government spending remained unchanged.The full Q2 GDP report, scheduled for Wednesday, is expected to show 0.5% growth, driven in part by a rebound in household consumption. The RBA, which has already cut rates three times this year to 3.6% amid easing inflation, may implement additional rate cuts as the economic recovery remains sluggish. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6551(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6592(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6502(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6429(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday as the yen weakened following comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino. Himino stated that the BoJ should continue its rate hikes but emphasized the high level of global uncertainty, indicating no immediate push for further increases.He highlighted that inflation carries both upside and downside risks. While tight labor markets are supporting wage growth, slower global economic activity and rising U.S. tariffs could weigh on prices. Himino provided limited guidance on the pace of future rate hikes, noting only that the BoJ must avoid acting too quickly or too slowly.The BoJ concluded its decade-long stimulus program last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January, signaling confidence that Japan is nearing a sustainable path toward its 2% inflation target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.82(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.79(236%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.7(Daiy low) a break below could take the pair towards 146.26 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell to a three-week low on Tuesday as investors grow increasingly worried about the state of finances in countries around the world, while stocks slid, the dollar gained, and gold touched a fresh record high.
At GMT (12:25) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.71 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.75 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.4 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged past $3,500 per ounce on Tuesday, reaching a record high as growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month boosted demand for the precious metal.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,480.57 per ounce as of 1125 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,508.50 earlier in the session. Bullion has gained 32% so far this year.
Oil prices climbed over 2% on Tuesday amid rising concerns that escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt supply, while speculation grew that OPEC+ may hold off on increasing output at its upcoming Sunday meeting.
Brent crude was up $1.13, or around 1.7%, at $69.28 a barrel by 1144 GMT, having risen just over 2% earlier.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $65.79 a barrel, $1.78 or nearly 2.8% higher. WTI futures did not settle on Monday due to the Labor Day holiday in the United States.