Posted at 28 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Italian Car Registration (YoY) (Jul) -5.1%, -17.4% previous
•German Car Registration (YoY) (Jul) 11.1% forecast, -13.8% previous
•German Car Registration (MoM) (Jul) 3.4% forecast, 7.1% previous
•French Car Registration (MoM) (Jul) -31.3% forecast, 36.8% previous
•French Car Registration (YoY) (Jul) -7.7% forecast, -6.7% previous
•Italian Business Confidence (Aug) 87.4 , 87.2 forecast, 87.8 previous
•Italian Consumer Confidence (Aug) 96.2, 96.6 forecast, 97.2 previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jul) 3.4%, 3.5% forecast, 3.3% previous
•EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Jul) 2.8%, 2.7% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Jul) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.2% previous
•Portuguese Business Confidence (Aug) 2.9, 2.8 previous
•Portuguese Consumer Confidence (Aug) -16.20, -15.70 previous
•Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) (Jun) 0.30%, -1.80% previous
•Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Jun) 1.20% , -2.10% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,970K forecast, 1,972K previous
• 12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q2) 2.50% forecast, 3.50% previous
• 12:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2) -3.3% previous
• 12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 3.0% forecast, -0.5% previous
• 12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 2.0% forecast, 3.8% previous
• 12:30 US GDP Sales (Q2) 6.3% forecast, -3.1% previous
• 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 231K forecast, 235K previous
• 12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 226.25K previous
• 12:30 US PCE Prices (Q2) 2.1% forecast, 3.7% previous
• 12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q2) 1.4% forecast, 0.5% previous
• 12:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Jun) 3.31% previous
• 12:30 Canada Current Account (Q2) -18.8B forecast, -2.1B previous
• 14:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.4% forecast, -0.8% previous
• 14:00 US Pending Home Sales Index (Jul) 72.0 previous
• 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 27B forecast, 13B previous
• 15:00 US KC Fed Composite Index (Aug) 1 previous
• 15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) -3 previous
• 15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.300% previous
• 15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.220% previous
• 17:00 US 7-Year Note Auction 4.092% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 20:00 US Fed Waller Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Thursday, demonstrating resilience despite the looming threat of a French government collapse. Prime Minister François Bayrou has announced an unexpected confidence vote for September 8, putting his minority government at risk. The potential collapse has sparked concerns over an economic slowdown. Business leaders warned that a government fall could revive recession fears, while opposition parties have pledged to vote against Bayrou, leaving France the Eurozone’s second-largest economy facing renewed political and economic turmoil. Recent opinion polls indicate that a majority of French citizens now favor new national elections, reflecting deepening political dissatisfaction and the risk of prolonged uncertainty. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1792(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1829(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1596 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1488(50%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as the greenback weakened, driven by increased bets on a potential Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Traders reacted to comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who indicated that monetary easing could be possible.The dollar also faced pressure from President Donald Trump’s intensified efforts to influence Fed policy, including his attempt to dismiss Governor Lisa Cook and appoint a loyalist. Market attention now turns to Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Futures markets currently imply an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September, with a total of 56 basis points of easing expected by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3612(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.366(higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3470(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3456(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Thursday as the U.S. dollar eased, with traders increasing bets on a potential Federal Reserve rate cut next month. New York Fed President John Williams said Wednesday that rate reductions are possible but will depend on upcoming economic data to determine whether a move is warranted. Markets currently assign an 88.7% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed cut on September 17, up from 61.9% in July, according to CME FedWatch. Investors are closely watching Friday’s release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which will play a key role in shaping expectations for future policy. Economists surveyed expect the July PCE index to rise 2.6%, unchanged from the prior month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6533(Aug 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6556(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6494(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6480(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar weakened against the yen on Thursday as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month continued to build. Investor sentiment for easing strengthened after New York Fed President John Williams suggested that rate reductions are possible. The dollar also came under pressure this week amid President Trump’s intensified efforts to influence monetary policy, including attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and install a loyalist. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa warned that ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies could weigh on business and household sentiment, posing risks to both Japan’s and the global economy. Nakagawa reaffirmed that the BOJ would continue raising rates if economic conditions match forecasts, while emphasizing the importance of careful data assessment amid heightened uncertainties. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.51(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.46(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.76(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose Thursday as strong earnings from Pernod Ricard lifted French spirits shares, while robust results from Nvidia eased concerns over slowing AI demand.
At GMT (12:32) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.45 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices declined on Thursday, following gains in the previous session, as expectations of lower U.S. fuel demand at the end of the summer travel season and the resumption of Russian supply to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline weighed on the market.
Brent crude futures dropped 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $67.97 at 1156 GMT, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures was down 4 cents at $64.11.
Gold climbed on Thursday to a more than one-month high as a softer dollar and caution ahead of Friday’s U.S. inflation data supported demand.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,407.81 per ounce at 1222 GMT, after hitting $3,408.62, its highest level since July 23, earlier in the session.U.S. December gold futures rose 0.5% to $3,466.30