Posted at 25 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 0.7%, -0.3%forecast, 0.4% previous
• New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5%, 0.1% forecast, 0.8% previous
• New Zealand Retail Sales Quarterly Vs. Year Ago (Q2) 2.3%, 0.7% previous
•Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jun) 0.7%, 0.8% forecast, 0.0% previous
•Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.8%, 1.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Japan Leading Index (Jun) 105.6, 106.1 forecast, 104.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:00 German Business Expectations (Aug) 90.2 forecast, 90.7 previous
•08:00 German Current Assessment (Aug) 86.7 forecast, 86.5 previous
•08:00 German German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug) 88.7 forecast, 88.6 previous
•08:00 German Spanish Consumer Confidence (Jul) 76.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower aon Monday as dolllar recovered from a four-week low after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a dovish shift. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday signaled a possible interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's meeting next month, saying that risks to the job market were rising but also noting inflation remained a threat and that a decision wasn't set in stone. Traders are now pricing in 80% odds of a quarter-point rate cut at the September 17 policy meeting, and a cumulative 48 basis points of reductions in 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1792(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1829(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1631 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1488(50%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped against the dollar on Monday as the U.S. currency tried to rebound from a four-week low. The dollar’s recent weakness followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish comments at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, where he signaled the possibility of a rate cut at next month’s policy meeting. Traders are now focused on key U.S. economic data, with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE deflator, due on Friday, followed by the August payrolls report the following week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3509(Aug 20th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3583(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3435(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3403(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Monday as dollar recovered some ground from Friday’s losses following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish pivot . Powell on Friday signalled a possible rate cut at the U.S. central bank's meeting next month, saying that risks to the job market were rising but inflation remained a threat, and that a decision wasn't set in stone.Markets are now pricing in an 87% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the September 17 policy meeting, and a cumulative 48 basis points of reductions by this year-end, according to CME FedWatch Tool.Looking ahead, the RBA will release minutes on Tuesday after a unanimous 25 bps rate cut to 3.6%.Investors also now await a this week reading on U.S. personal consumption prices on Friday that is expected to show core inflation creeping up to its highest since late 2023 at 2.9%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6517(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6592(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6486(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6404(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as yen weakened after despite hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.BOJ Governor Ueda said wage hikes are broadening beyond major firms and likely to accelerate amid a tight job market, signaling conditions for another rate hike are taking shape.The remarks may boost expectations of the BOJ resuming its rate hike cycle later this year after a pause over U.S. tariff concerns.After ending its decade-long stimulus last year, the BOJ raised rates to 0.5% in January, expecting to sustainably hit its 2% inflation target.The BOJ held rates in July but raised inflation forecasts and upgraded its economic outlook, keeping rate hike expectations alive. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.72(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.70(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.64(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.93 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Chinese shares led Asia higher on Monday as investors cautiously welcomed prospects of renewed U.S. rate cuts and awaited Nvidia’s results to validate lofty AI valuations.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 1.30% , Hang Seng was up 2.03, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up`0.43 %, China A50 was up by up 1.98%
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped from a near two-week high on Monday as the dollar strengthened, although rising bets of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve following Chair Jerome Powell's dovish pivot last week, lent some support to bullion.
Spot gold inched down 0.1% at $3,367.86 per ounce, as of 0632 GMT, after hitting its highest since August 11 on Friday.U.S. gold futures for December delivery eased 0.2% to $3,412.50.
Oil prices climbed Monday as intensified Ukrainian attacks on Russia raised supply concerns, while prospects of a U.S. rate cut boosted the global growth and demand outlook.
Brent crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.19%, to $67.86 at 0656 GMT, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 15 cents, or 0.24%, to $63.81.
Gold eased from a near two-week high on Monday as a stronger dollar weighed, though growing Fed rate cut bets after Powell’s dovish shift last week offered support.