Posted at 22 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Sweden Unemployment Rate (Jul) 8.0%, 9.4% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.2%, 0.4%forecast,0.3% previous
• German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -0.3%, -0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic data(GMT)
• 12:30???Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.3% previous
• 12:30???Canada ???Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 1.6% forecast, -1.1% previous
• 12:30???Canada ???Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.9% forecast, -0.2% previous
•14:30???Canada???BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q2) 1.5
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:00 US ???Fed Collins Speaks
•14:00???US ???Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro inched up against the dollar on Friday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium for guidance on economic conditions and policy direction. Expectations for a September rate cut had risen earlier this month following weak payrolls and soft inflation, but those bets eased after the release of July Fed meeting minutes. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 73.3% probability of a September cut, down from 82.4% on Thursday. On the data front,Germany’s economy contracted 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1637(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Aug 13th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1535 (Aug 5th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1478(50%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound traded in tight range on Friday as markets looked to Powell for hints on the future of U.S. rates. Markets are eyeing the Jackson Hole symposium for cues from Powell on a possible September rate cut after signs of labor market softness in the U.S.Investors trimmed rate cut wagers ahead of an eagerly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for 1400 GMT. Money markets are currently pricing in a 73% chance of 25 basis point rate cut next month, down from 85% a week earlier, per CME's FedWatch tool.On the data front, British consumers data showed a modest uptick in confidence this month after the recent BoE interest rate cut, but remain sensitive to inflation and tax worries. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3577(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3626(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3389(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3268(June 11th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar was little changed on Friday as investors awaited Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Markets are looking for clues on a possible September rate cut amid signs of labor market softening, though Fed officials have shown limited support for such a move. Attention now turns to Powell’s remarks, with CME FedWatch showing traders pricing a 75% chance of a 25 bps September cut, down from 92% a week earlier.Meanwhile, Australia CPI next Wednesday will be closely watched for inflationary pressures and to gauge RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) policy direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6482 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6557(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6405(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6375(June 23rd low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Friday ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with traders awaiting policy signals. Earlier optimism for rate cuts, driven by soft July payrolls and downward hiring revisions, has waned as inflation concerns and cautious Fed commentary curbed expectations. Officials appear hesitant on a September move, and CME FedWatch now assigns a 75% probability of a 25 bps cut, down from 92% a week ago. Meanwhile, Japan’s core inflation eased for a second straight month in July but stayed above the BOJ’s 2% goal, reinforcing prospects of another hike. Core CPI excluding fresh food rose 3.1% year-on-year, above forecasts of 3.0%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.72(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.70(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.64(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.93 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares edged up Friday as investors awaited Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole for signals on U.S. monetary policy
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged lower Friday as the dollar strengthened, with investors awaiting Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for Fed policy guidance.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,330.70 per ounce by 1058 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery were 0.4% lower at $3,372.70.
Oil prices were little changed on Friday as hopes for an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine dimmed, putting prices on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks.
Brent crude futures were up 8 cents, or 0.12%, at $67.75 a barrel by 1200 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 16 cents, or 0.25%, to $63.68.