Posted at 20 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) 3.8%, 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous
• UK Core RPI (YoY) (Jul) 4.7%, 4.3% previous
• UK Core RPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.4%, 0.4% previous
• UK CPI (YoY) (Jul) 3.8%, 3.7% forecast, 3.6% previous
• UK CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
• UK CPI, n.s.a (Jul) 139.00, 138.90 previous
• UK CPIH (YoY) (Jul) 4.2%, 4.1% previous
• UK RPI (YoY) (Jul) 4.8%, 4.5% forecast, 4.4% previous
• UK RPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.4%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
• German PPI (MoM) (Jul) -0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• German PPI (YoY) (Jul) -1.5%, -1.3% forecast, -1.3% previous
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
• EU CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.0%, 2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, 0.3% previous
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jul) 2.0%, 1.9% previous
• EU CPI, n.s.a (Jul) 129.12, 129.10 forecast, 129.10 previous
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jul) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (Jul) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic data(GMT)
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.800Mforecast , 3.036M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.056M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports 0.699M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.045M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.032M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.450M forecast, 0.714M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production 0.010M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.827M previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the dollar on Wednesday due to uncertainty over a potential deal to end the Ukraine war, with attention moving to the Jackson Hole symposium of central bankers for clues on the path of U.S. interest rate cut. Investors are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, seeking clarity on the policy outlook and any pushback against expectations for a rate cut next month.Market bets on a September 17 rate cut increased after a weaker-than-expected payrolls report earlier this month and were reinforced by consumer price data showing limited tariff-driven inflation pressures. However, last week’s hotter producer price reading complicated the outlook, highlighting the challenge for policymakers. Powell has previously noted caution in cutting rates, citing the risk of tariff-related price increases over the summer. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1792(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1829(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1631 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1488(50%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound eased against dollar on Wednesday as investors reacted to stronger-than-expected UK inflation figures. In July, consumer price inflation rose to 3.8%, reaching an 18-month high and keeping the UK ahead of other major economies in terms of price growth. The data led markets to adjust their expectations for the Bank of England, with traders now forecasting a 0.25% rate cut in March next year, rather than the previously anticipated reduction before the end of 2025. Earlier this month, the BoE lowered interest rates following a tight 5-4 vote, indicating it plans to slow the pace of easing due to persistent inflation pressures. At GMT 11:57,the pound was down 0.10% at 1.3474 against greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3620(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3664(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3460(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3396(SMA20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Wednesday as traders adopted cautious tone ahead of key risk events later this week. This week, attention is on the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming (August 21–23), where traders will closely analyze Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech for clues on the near-term interest rate outlook.On the data front, U.S. July durable goods orders will provide the next major insight for the dollar, while Australia’s CPI report on August 27 will be closely monitored for signals on domestic policy. Market pricing suggests a 34% chance of another RBA move in September, with expectations largely set for a cut to 3.35% in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6557(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6431(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.639(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Wednesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium later this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Friday, with markets closely watching for signals on the central bank’s policy direction. Analysts will also scrutinize the July Fed minutes for additional insights.Interest rate futures currently price in two 25-basis-point cuts this year, with the first anticipated in September. In Japan, trade data showed an unexpected ¥117.5 billion ($800 million) deficit in July, as exports fell for a third straight month amid weaker global demand and the effects of U.S. trade policies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.72(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.70(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.64(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.93 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European equities were mixed on Wednesday as tech stocks mirrored weak Wall Street performances and the defence sector came under pressure for a second consecutive day.
At GMT 12:18 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.55 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.48percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.12percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a decline in U.S. crude inventories, while investors monitored developments in Ukraine peace talks, with Russian crude sanctions still in effect.
Crude fell more than 1% on Tuesday on optimism that an agreement to end the war seemed closer. However, U.S. President Donald Trump conceded that Russian President Vladimir Putin might not want to make a deal.
Gold inched higher on Wednesday but remained near three-week lows as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and this week’s Jackson Hole symposium for signals on potential rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,329.89 per ounce, as of 1140 GMT, after reaching its lowest level since August 1.U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3,372.80.