Posted at 20 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Adjusted Trade Balance (Jul): -0.30T, -0.07T forecast, -0.25T previous
• Japan Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Jun): 7.6%, 5.0% forecast, 4.4% previous
• Japan Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Jun): 3.0%, -0.4% forecast, -0.6% previous
• Japan Exports (YoY) (Jul): -2.6%, -2.1% forecast, -0.5% previous
• Japan Imports (YoY) (Jul): -7.5%, -10.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
• Japan Balance (Jul): -117.5B, 196.2B forecast, 152.1B previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (1Y) (Aug): 3.50%, 3.50% forecast, 3.50% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (5Y) (Aug): 3.00%, 3.00% forecast, 3.00% previous
•New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Aug): 3.00%, 3.00% forecast, 3.25% previous
Looking Ahead Economic data(GMT)
•09:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Jul): -0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jul): 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Jul): 2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
•09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Jul): 0.3% previous
•09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jul): 1.9% previous
•09:00 EU CPI n.s.a. (Jul): 129.10 forecast, 129.10 previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jul): 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (Jul): -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the dollar on Wednesday as the greenback gained support ahead of the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. Investors are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, seeking clarity on the policy outlook and any pushback against expectations for a rate cut next month.Market bets on a September 17 rate cut increased after a weaker-than-expected payrolls report earlier this month and were reinforced by consumer price data showing limited tariff-driven inflation pressures. However, last week’s hotter producer price reading complicated the outlook, highlighting the challenge for policymakers. Powell has previously noted caution in cutting rates, citing the risk of tariff-related price increases over the summer. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1792(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1829(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1631 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1488(50%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed UK inflation climbed to an 18-month high in July. Headline inflation rose to 3.8% from 3.6% in June, marking the highest reading since January 2024 and underscoring the UK’s struggle with the sharpest price pressures among major advanced economies.Services inflation, a key gauge for the Bank of England, accelerated to 5.0% from 4.7% the previous month, highlighting persistent underlying price growth.By comparison, U.S. inflation held steady at 2.7% in July, while euro zone inflation is expected to hover near the European Central Bank’s 2% target in the coming years. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3620(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3664(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3460(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3396(SMA20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Wednesday as traders pared back positions ahead of key risk events later in the week.Market sentiment remains cautious with focus on Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, which could deliver a more hawkish tone. Any such outcome is likely to draw further criticism from former President Trump, keeping Fed policy firmly in the political spotlight.On the data front, U.S. July durable goods orders will provide the next major input for the dollar, while Australia’s CPI release on August 27 will be closely watched for domestic policy cues. Markets imply a 34% chance of another move in September by RBA, and are almost fully priced for a drop to 3.35% in November. At GMT 07:17, the Australian dollar was down 0.14% to 0.6490 against the Greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6557(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6431(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.639(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Wednesday as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium later this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday, with markets watching closely for signals on the policy outlook. The release of the July Fed minutes will also be scrutinized for clues on the central bank’s stance.Interest rate futures currently price in two 25-basis-point cuts this year, with the first expected in September.In Japan, trade data showed an unexpected deficit of ¥117.5 billion ($800 million) in July as exports declined for a third consecutive month, reflecting weaker global demand and the impact of U.S. trade policies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.72(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.70(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.64(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.93 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares declined on Wednesday, pressured by a tech-driven selloff on Wall Street, while the U.S. dollar firmed ahead of a key central bankers’ meeting later this week.
South Korea’s KOSPI was down 0.68% , Hang Seng was up 0.39, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down`1.42%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices inched higher on Wednesday as investors monitored developments in Ukraine peace talks, while existing sanctions on Russian crude stayed in place and the risk of additional restrictions on its buyers remained.
Brent crude futures rose 50 cents to $66.29 a barrel by 0630 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) September futures, which expire Wednesday, gained 45 cents to $62.80, while the more active October contract climbed 53 cents to $62.30
Gold ticked up on Wednesday but hovered close to a three-week low, pressured by a stronger dollar, as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the future course of monetary policy.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.2% to $3,364.30 spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,321.83 per ounce, as of 0601 GMT, after reaching its lowest level since August 1.