Posted at 18 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Jul) 60.80%, 60.70% previous
•Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Jun) 4.50, -1.40 previous
Looking Ahead Economic data(GMT)
•09:00 EU Trade Balance (Jun) 18.1B forecast, 16.2B previous
•09:30 German 12-Months Bubill Auction 1.798% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against dollar on Monday as markets turned cautious ahead of a high-profile meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, while focus also shifts to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium for further policy signals. In the U.S., the week’s data calendar kicks off with housing starts on Tuesday, followed by the FOMC minutes of the July meeting, weekly jobless claims, S&P Global flash PMIs, and existing home sales. Fed commentary is also in focus, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.In Europe, investors will track a series of second-tier releases, including trade data, current account figures, final CPI, and PMI surveys. The ECB’s consumer inflation expectations report and Germany’s final Q2 GDP reading will also be closely watched. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1811(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1783(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1625 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1567(38.2%fib ).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Monday as investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders on a potential peace deal with Russia. The week’s main focus is the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium (Aug 21–23), where Chair Jerome Powell will outline the economic outlook and policy stance. Markets are pricing in an 84.2% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut next month, with further easing expected by year-end. In the UK, key data releases include CPI on Wednesday, PMIs on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday. Fitch will review the UK’s credit rating, while BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is set to join a panel at Jackson Hole on Saturday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3620(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3664(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3460(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3396(SMA20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Monday as greenback struggled as markets continued to price in growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.On the domestic economic releases , investors await the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, consumer inflation expectations, flash PMIs, and speeches from RBA officials scheduled for this week. In the U.S., the week will be relatively quiet, with key releases including housing starts on Tuesday, the FOMC minutes from the July meeting, weekly jobless claims, S&P flash PMIs, and existing home sales. Markets imply around an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's meeting on September 17, and are priced for a further easing by December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6520(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6608(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6485(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6422(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar inched higher on Monday as investors positioned cautiously ahead of a busy week featuring geopolitical developments and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Monday’s key event is a Trump–Zelenskiy meeting with European leaders, as Washington presses Ukraine toward a quick peace deal.Attention also turns to Jackson Hole this week, where Powell’s speech may offer fresh guidance on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.This week’s economic calendar is packed with market-moving events. In the U.S., focus will be on housing starts, the release of July FOMC minutes, weekly jobless claims, S&P flash PMIs, existing home sales, and remarks from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, which could offer fresh policy insights.Meanwhile, Japan will publish machinery orders, trade figures, PMIs, and the all-important CPI report on Friday, a key gauge for the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.52(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.92(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.12(61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.27(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares firmed on Monday ahead of a potentially eventful week for U.S. rate policy, while oil prices eased as concerns over Russian supply risks receded.
China A50 was up 0.50% , Hang Seng was down 0.16 Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.77%
Commodities Recap
Gold rose from a two-week low as softer U.S. Treasury yields supported prices, with focus on upcoming talks between U.S., Ukrainian, and European leaders over a Russia peace deal.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $3,348.59 per ounce, as of 0609 GMT on Monday, after hitting its lowest level since August 1.U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3,394.90.
Oil prices climbed Monday after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India’s Russian crude purchases were financing Moscow’s war in Ukraine and must end.
Brent crude futures rose 30 cents, or 0.46%, to $66.15 a barrel by 0629 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.19 a barrel, up 39 cents, or 0.62%.