Posted at 14 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2): -4.0%, 0.1% forecast, 3.9% previous
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q2): 0.1%, 6.1% previous
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Jun): 1.5%, 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Jun): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, -0.5% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q2): 1.2%, 1.0% forecast, 1.3% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) (Jun): 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Jun): 1.4%, 1.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
•UK Index of Services: 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun): 0.7%, 0.3% forecast, -1.3% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun): 0.2%, -0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun): 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, -1.0% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jun): 0.0%, -0.9% forecast, 1.0% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jun): 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•French CPI NSA (YoY) (Jul): 1.0%, 1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
•French CPI NSA (MoM) (Jul): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Jul): 1.0%, 1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Jul): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Jul): 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.9% previous
•Employment Change (YoY) (Q2): 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
•Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Employment Overall (Q2): 169,860.6K, 169,703.6K previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q2): 1.4%, 1.4% forecast, 1.5% previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun): -1.3%, -0.9% forecast, 1.1% previous
•EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun): 0.2%, 1.7% forecast, 3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,960K forecast, 1,974K previous
•12:30 US Core PPI (YoY) (Jul): 2.9% forecast, 2.6% previous
•12:30 US Core PPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 225K forecast, 226K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 220.75K previous
•12:30 US PPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•12:30 US PPI (YoY) (Jul): 2.5% forecast, 2.3% previous
•12:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Jul): 0.0% previous
•12:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Jul): 2.5% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.300% previous
•15:30 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.235% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 17:00 U.S. President Trump Speaks
•18:00 FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Thursday as market digested Eurozone economic data.Euro zone industrial output dipped more than expected in June even as overall economic growth held up in the second quarter, challenging views that the 20 nation currency union remains resilient to the fallout from a global trade war.Industrial output fell 1.3% on the month in June, driven by a big dip in Germany and weak consumer goods production, underperforming expectations for a 1.0% fall, data from Eurostat showed on Thursday.Meanwhile GDP grew by 0.1% on the quarter, in line with a preliminary estimate, and employment rose just 0.1% on the quarter, in line with expectations , but below the 0.2% in the previous three months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1811(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1783(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1625 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1567(38.2%fib ).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Thursday after data showed UK economy grows by stronger-than-expected in Q2. Britain's economy grew by a faster-than-expected 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025 after growth of 0.7% in the first three months of the year, offering a boost to finance minister Rachel Reeves, official figures showed on Thursday. Thursday’s data from the Office for National Statistics showed British GDP rose by 0.4% in June alone after a 0.1% fall in output in May due to surprisingly strong growth across services, industrial output and construction. Output in the second quarter overall was up 1.2% from the same period last year compared to a median forecast from economists for 1.0% growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3620(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3664(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3460(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3396(SMA20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Thursday after strong Australian July jobs data eased concerns about a labour market slowdown and reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate cut. Employment rose by 24,500 in July, up from just 1,000 in June and in line with forecasts, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Full-time positions surged by 60,500, more than offsetting June’s decline. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, the highest since November 2021, while the participation rate dipped to 67.0% and total hours worked rose 0.3% after a June drop. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6611(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6628(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6518(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6482(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Thursday as the yen strengthened amid speculation over a potential Bank of Japan policy shift and narrowing JGB–U.S. Treasury yield spreads. The BOJ will hold its next rate review in September, followed by another in October, which will include updated growth and inflation forecasts. Earlier this year, the BOJ ended a decade-long massive stimulus programme and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January, reflecting confidence that Japan was nearing its 2% inflation target. In July, the BOJ kept rates unchanged but upgraded its inflation outlook and offered a more positive economic assessment, sustaining market expectations for another rate hike this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.52(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.92(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.12(61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.27(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares hit two-week highs on Thursday, lifted by strong insurer earnings from Admiral and Aviva, which offset a drop in Adyen after it cut its annual revenue forecast.
At GMT (12:12) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.53 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.57 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged down on Thursday due to a slight uptick in the U.S. dollar index, although expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September limited losses.
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,353.19 per ounce as of 1050 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.2% to $3,401.60.
Oil prices were stable on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of Friday's U.S.-Russia summit on Ukraine on Russian crude flows, after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of "severe consequences" for Russia if it does not agree to peace.
Brent crude futures were up 25 cents, or 0.38%, at $65.88 a barrel by 1202 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 26 cents, or 0.42%, higher at $62.91.