Posted at 14 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Employment Change (Jul) 24.5K, 25.3Kforecast, 1.0K previous
• Australia Full Employment Change (Jul) 60.5K, -36.7K previous
• Australia Rate (Jul) 67.0%, 67.1% forecast, 67.0% previous
• Australia Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.2%, 4.2% forecast, 4.3% previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2): -4.0%, 0.1% forecast, 3.9% previous
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q2): 0.1%, 6.1% previous
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Jun): 1.5%, 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Jun): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, -0.5% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q2): 1.2%, 1.0% forecast, 1.3% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) (Jun): 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Jun): 1.4%, 1.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
•UK Index of Services: 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun): 0.7%, 0.3% forecast, -1.3% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun): 0.2%, -0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun): 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, -1.0% previous
UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jun): 0.0%, -0.9% forecast, 1.0% previous
UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jun): 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:30 UK Labour Productivity (Q1): -0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
•09:00 Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•09:00 Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) (Q2): 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
•09:00 Eurozone Employment Overall (Q2): 169,794.4K previous
•09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q2): 1.4% forecast, 1.5% previous
•09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun): 1.7% forecast, 3.7% previous
•09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun): -0.9% forecast, 1.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro hovered around $1.1700 level on Thursday as the U.S. dollar struggled on growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. The dollar’s decline followed dovish Fed signals, softening labor market data, and minimal inflation impact from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Markets see a September 17 rate cut as almost certain, with about a 7% chance of a 50-basis-point move. While the meeting is over a month away, next week’s Jackson Hole symposium is viewed as a key event, often used to signal or reinforce monetary policy direction. The euro hovered at $1.1703, just below Wednesday's peak of $1.1730, a level last seen on July 28. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1811(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1783(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1625 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1567(38.2%fib ).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Thursday after data showed UK economy grows by stronger-than-expected in Q2. Britain's economy grew by a faster-than-expected 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025 after growth of 0.7% in the first three months of the year, offering a boost to finance minister Rachel Reeves, official figures showed on Thursday. Thursday’s data from the Office for National Statistics showed British GDP rose by 0.4% in June alone after a 0.1% fall in output in May due to surprisingly strong growth across services, industrial output and construction. Output in the second quarter overall was up 1.2% from the same period last year compared to a median forecast from economists for 1.0% growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3620(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3664(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3460(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3396(SMA20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Thursday after strong Australian July jobs data eased concerns about a labour market slowdown and reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate cut. Employment rose by 24,500 in July, up from just 1,000 in June and in line with forecasts, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Full-time positions surged by 60,500, more than offsetting June’s decline. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, the highest since November 2021, while the participation rate dipped to 67.0% and total hours worked rose 0.3% after a June drop. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6611(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6628(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6518(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6482(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Thursday as the yen strengthened amid speculation over a potential Bank of Japan policy shift and narrowing JGB–U.S. Treasury yield spreads. The BOJ will hold its next rate review in September, followed by another in October, which will include updated growth and inflation forecasts. Earlier this year, the BOJ ended a decade-long massive stimulus programme and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January, reflecting confidence that Japan was nearing its 2% inflation target. In July, the BOJ kept rates unchanged but upgraded its inflation outlook and offered a more positive economic assessment, sustaining market expectations for another rate hike this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.52(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.92(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.12(61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.27(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks took a breather on Thursday, with investors pausing after recent gains as they weighed upcoming economic data and central bank signals.
China A50 was up 0.72% , Hang Seng was down 0.36 Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.35%
Commodities Recap
Gold rose for a third straight session on Thursday, supported by growing expectations of a September U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut after soft inflation data, which also pressured the dollar.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,357.65 per ounce by 0410 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery lost 0.1% to $3,406.80.
Oil prices rose on Thursday as investors assessed the potential impact of Friday’s U.S.-Russia summit on Ukraine on Russian crude flows, with looming secondary sanctions on Moscow’s customers, while an expected rise in supply limited gains.
Brent crude futures rose 45 cents, or 0.7%, to $66.08 a barrel at 0631 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 44 cents, also up 0.7%, to $63.09.