Posted at 12 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jun) 5.0%,5.0% forecast, 5.0% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun) 4.6% 4.7%forecast,5.0% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Jul) -6.2K, 19.7Kforecast,-15.5Kprevious
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jun) 238K, 134Kprevious
•UK Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.7%, 4.7% forecast,4.7%previous
•German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug) -68.6,-65.0 forecast,-59.5 previous
•German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 34.7,39.5 forecast,52.7 previous
•EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 25.1, 28.1 forecast,36.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) 3.0% forecast, 2.9% previous
•12:30 US Core CPI Index (Jul) 327.60
•12:30 US CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous
•12:30 US CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Jul) 323.17 forecast, 322.56 previous
•12:30 US CPI Index, s.a (Jul) 321.50 previous
•12:30 US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Jul) 0.34% previous
•12:30 US Real Earnings (MoM) (Jul) -0.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Jun) -3.9% forecast, 12.0% previous
•15:00 US Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•14:30 US Fed Schmid Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased on Tuesday as traders turned their attention to U.S. consumer price inflation data due later in the day, a key indicator for shaping the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Economists expect July CPI to show a moderate overall rise, though import tariffs on goods such as household furniture and apparel may have driven core inflation to its largest increase in six months. The release comes amid rising concerns over the accuracy of U.S. inflation and employment statistics, after budget and staffing reductions forced the suspension of data collection for certain components of the CPI basket in parts of the country. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1696(Aug 9th high ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1783(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1595 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1529(Aug 5th low ).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Tuesday as investors digested UK labour market data. Economic data showed Britain’s jobs market continues to soften, with payrolls declining for a sixth straight month and vacancies falling further. However, persistent wage growth highlights the Bank of England’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts.With policymakers divided over risks from both a hiring slowdown and rising inflation pressures, the latest figures indicate a gradual cooling of the labor market, though less sharply than in recent months.Meanwhile, investors await U.S. inflation data, expected to reveal the impact of tariff-driven cost pressures as companies pass higher expenses onto consumers.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3556(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3593(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3395(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3230(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate for the third time this year and aligning with market expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut its main cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% as widely expected following a two-day policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.1%, citing weaker public demand early in the year unlikely to improve later. The country’s benchmark rate is now 3.6%, the lowest since April 2023, matching economists’ expectations. The RBA said inflation has fallen “substantially” since its 2022 peak, with higher rates bringing demand and supply closer to balance.At GMT 05:07, the Australian dollar was down 0.16% to 0.6501 against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6511(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6601(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6427(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against the yen on Tuesday as markets braced for a U.S. consumer inflation report later in the day that could shape expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. A moderate reading on price pressures could cement bets for a Fed rate reduction next month, but if signs emerge that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs are stoking inflation that might keep the central bank on hold for now. Economists expect core CPI to have risen 0.3% in July, lifting the annual rate to 3% and keeping it above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.In the 12 months through July, the CPI is forecast to have advanced 2.8% after rising 2.7% in June. Economists say food prices are being driven higher by farm labor shortages, stemming from the Trump administration’s deportation of undocumented migrants, as well as by tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.30(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.91(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 146.86 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose Tuesday as a U.S.-China tariff truce extension boosted sentiment, while investors awaited U.S. inflation data to assess tariffs’ impact on prices and monetary policy.
At GMT (12:25) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.42 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.21 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices steadied on Tuesday following a sharp sell-off in U.S. futures from record highs, as investors turned their attention to U.S. inflation data that may influence the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline.
Spot gold was little changed at $3,345.59 per ounce as of 1046 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.2% at $3,394.10.
Oil prices were broadly steady on Tuesday as the United States and China extended a pause on higher tariffs, easing concerns an escalation of their trade war would hit oil consumption.
Brent crude futures lost 2 cents to $66.61 a barrel by 0904 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $63.86.