Posted at 12 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia NAB Business Confidence (Jul) 7, 5 previous
•Australia NAB Business Survey (Jul) 5, 7 previous
•Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) 3.60%, 3.60% forecast,3.85% previous
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jun) 5.0%,5.0% forecast, 5.0% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun) 4.6% 4.7%forecast,5.0% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Jul) -6.2K, 19.7Kforecast,-15.5Kprevious
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jun) 238K, 134Kprevious
UK Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.7%, 4.7% forecast,4.7%previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug) -65.0 forecast,-59.5 previous
•09:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 39.5 forecast,52.7 previous
•09:00 Greek Unemployment Rate (Jun) 7.9% previous
•09:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 28.1 forecast,36.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased on Tuesday as traders turned their attention to U.S. consumer price inflation data due later in the day, a key indicator for shaping the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Economists expect July CPI to show a moderate overall rise, though import tariffs on goods such as household furniture and apparel may have driven core inflation to its largest increase in six months. The release comes amid rising concerns over the accuracy of U.S. inflation and employment statistics, after budget and staffing reductions forced the suspension of data collection for certain components of the CPI basket in parts of the country. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1696(Aug 9th high ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1783(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1595 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1529(Aug 5th low ).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Tuesday as investors assessed UK labour market data. British average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, rose 5.0% in the three months to June from a year earlier, matching both economist forecasts and the pace seen in the previous three-month period to May, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday. The Bank of England last week cut interest rates to 4.00% from 4.25% in a narrow, split decision. Some policymakers remain concerned about persistent underlying price pressures, including strong wage growth, while others focus on signs of a slowing jobs market.Investors are not fully pricing in another BoE rate cut until February 2026, despite June inflation rising to 3.6% the highest since January 2024 and the Bank projecting it will soon reach 4%, double its 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3556(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3593(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3395(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3230(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate for the third time this year and aligning with market expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut its main cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% as widely expected following a two-day policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.1%, citing weaker public demand early in the year unlikely to improve later. The country’s benchmark rate is now 3.6%, the lowest since April 2023, matching economists’ expectations. The RBA said inflation has fallen “substantially” since its 2022 peak, with higher rates bringing demand and supply closer to balance.At GMT 05:07, the Australian dollar was down 0.16% to 0.6501 against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6511(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6601(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6427(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against the yen on Tuesday as markets braced for a U.S. consumer inflation report later in the day that could shape expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. A moderate reading on price pressures could cement bets for a Fed rate reduction next month, but if signs emerge that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs are stoking inflation that might keep the central bank on hold for now. Economists expect core CPI to have risen 0.3% in July, lifting the annual rate to 3% and keeping it above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.In the 12 months through July, the CPI is forecast to have advanced 2.8% after rising 2.7% in June. Economists say food prices are being driven higher by farm labor shortages, stemming from the Trump administration’s deportation of undocumented migrants, as well as by tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.30(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.91(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 146.86 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rose and most regional currencies steadied Tuesday after the U.S. and China extended their tariff truce to November, easing market nerves ahead of a key U.S. inflation report due later in the day.
China A50 was up 0.77% , Hang Seng was up 0.04 Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.14%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched higher on Tuesday, recovering slightly from the previous session’s steep drop, as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s path for interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,354.91 per ounce, as of 0453 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were steady at $3,405.40.
Oil prices climbed on Tuesday after the United States and China agreed to extend a pause on higher tariffs, easing fears that an escalation in their trade dispute could damage economic growth and weaken fuel demand in the world’s two largest oil-consuming nations.
Brent crude futures gained 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $66.90 a barrel by 0540 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $64.20.