Posted at 11 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Italian CPI (YoY) (Jul) 1.7%, 1.7% forecast, 1.7% previous
• Italian CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jul) 1.5%, - , 1.5% previous
• Italian HICP (MoM) (Jul) -1.0%, -1.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Italian HICP (YoY) (Jul) 1.7%, 1.7% forecast, 1.8% previous
• Italian Trade Balance (Jun) 5.409B, 7.120B forecast, 6.103B previous
• Trade Balance EU (Jun) -0.07B, - forecast, 0.72B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.952% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.957% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 1.961% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.165% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.980% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro fell against the dollar on Monday as investors stayed cautious ahead of important U.S. inflation data, ongoing tariff negotiations, and talks between the U.S. and Russia regarding the conflict in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy secured diplomatic support from Europe and NATO ahead of the Russia-U.S. summit scheduled for Friday in Alaska, amid fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump might attempt to impose conditions to end the 3½-year war. At the same time, the August 12 deadline for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China is approaching, with analysts anticipating an extension as both countries work to avoid implementing steep tariffs on each other’s goods. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1784(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1874(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1638 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1549(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound hovered near a two-week high on Monday as markets awaited key job and growth data later this week, following the BoE’s narrow rate cut on Thursday. Economists expect Tuesday’s data to show unemployment steady at 4.7% for the three months to June, while preliminary GDP growth for Q2 is forecasted to slow to 0.1%, down from 0.7% in Q1. Last week, the BoE cut the Bank Rate by 25 bps to 4%, though four of nine MPC members voted to keep rates unchanged. The BoE has eased rates more gradually than the ECB, cutting about once per quarter since mid-last year due to ongoing inflation concerns. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data, due Tuesday, will be a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3540(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3584Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3389(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3345(Aug 7th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Monday as investors prepared for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming policy meeting next week. Markets widely expect the RBA to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday, a move that could weigh on the currency, especially amid heightened global risk aversion driven by recent shifts in U.S. policy. The central bank has emphasized a cautious and gradual approach to monetary easing, leading investors to anticipate no further rate changes in September, with the next possible cut likely in November. While a 25 basis point reduction is fully priced in for the upcoming meeting, the chance of a larger 50 basis point cut remains minimal. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6550(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6601(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6493(Aug 7th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6427(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained on Monday as traders awaited upcoming key U.S. CPI release. U.S. consumer price data is due Tuesday, with analysts expecting tariff effects to lift core CPI by 0.3% for the month, pushing the annual rate to 3.0% and further above the Fed’s 2% target. Analysts forecast that consumer prices in July rose 2.8% from a year earlier, indicating a moderate pace of inflation. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts increased after weak jobs data, as investors anticipate the central bank will ease policy to support the labor market.Fed funds futures show over a 90% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting, with at least two cuts priced in for this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.04(SMA20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.31(61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.40 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares were mixed on Monday as investors held back from making major moves ahead of key U.S. inflation data, ongoing tariff talks, and U.S.-Russia discussions over the Ukraine conflict.
At GMT (12:25) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.30 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.27 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.27percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped over 1% on Monday as investors awaited updates from the White House on possible bullion tariffs and upcoming U.S. inflation data, which will influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
Spot gold was down 1.4% at $3,350.94 an ounce by 1135 GMT after touching $3,408.06 on Friday, its highest since July 23.
Oil prices rose slightly on Monday following a more than 4% drop last week, as investors focused on upcoming U.S.-Russia talks this week regarding the war in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures were up 36 cents, or 0.54%, to $66.95 a barrel at 1202 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 34 cents, or 0.53%, to $64.22.