Posted at 06 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun): -1.0%, 1.2% forecast, -0.8% previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q2): 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (Jul): 48.3, 50.2 previous
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Jul): 46.3, 44.8 previous
•HCOB France Construction PMI (Jul): 39.7, 41.6 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (Jul): 44.7, 45.2 previous
•Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun): 0.2%, -0.1% forecast, -0.8% previous
•Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun): -0.9%, -1.0% previous
•S&P Global UK Construction PMI (Jul): 44.3, 48.9 forecast, 48.8 previous
•Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, -0.3% previous
•Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun): 3.1%, 2.6% forecast, 1.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories: 0.200M forecast, 7.698M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): -0.025M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports: 1.317M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.690M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production: 0.130M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: 1.000M forecast, 3.635M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production: 0.676M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles: 0.739M previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar weakened following another round of soft economic data and renewed uncertainty over Federal Reserve leadership. President Donald Trump said he will nominate a replacement for outgoing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler by week’s end and has narrowed the list of potential successors to Fed Chair Jerome Powell to four candidates.Adding to dollar pressure, U.S. services sector activity stalled unexpectedly in July, while input costs rose at the fastest pace in nearly three years further evidence of economic strain. Meanwhile, euro zone retail sales climbed 3.1% year-on-year in June, beating expectations of 2.6%, suggesting domestic consumption remains resilient despite global trade headwinds. The euro ticked up 0.1% to $1.1580.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1609(38.2%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1652(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1480 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1353(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the Bank of England’s policy decision, with a widely expected rate cut to 4% from 4.25% due on Thursday. Despite inflation nearing twice the BoE’s 2% target in June, markets are pricing in another cut before year-end, with over a 90% chance of easing this week and 86 basis points of cuts expected by December 2026. Britain’s construction sector shrank at its fastest pace in over five years in July, raising fresh concerns about the government’s ability to deliver on its pledge to build 1.5 million homes by mid-2029. S&P Global’s construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell sharply to 44.3 in July from 48.8 in June the lowest reading since May 2020 and below all economist forecasts signaling a deepening slowdown in the sector. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3278(July31st high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3362(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3178(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3134(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the greenback on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar remained under pressure following a string of soft economic data. Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected ISM Services PMI added to concerns triggered by Friday’s dismal nonfarm payrolls report, deepening fears of a U.S. economic slowdown and reinforcing expectations of an earlier Federal Reserve rate cut. Greenback’s moves have been more subdued this week, the currency has yet to recover from Friday’s steep losses its worst single-day drop in nearly four months. Traders are now pricing in a 91% chance of a rate cut in September, with around 58 basis points of easing anticipated by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6480(July 31st high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6413(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6397(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell against the yen on Wednesday as investor caution grew amid leadership uncertainty at the Federal Reserve and renewed tariff concerns. Donald Trump said he would announce a nominee for the Fed Board by the end of the week and has narrowed potential successors to Chair Jerome Powell to four candidates. The comments coincided with weak U.S. services data for July, as rising input costs highlighted growing pressure from escalating trade threats. In Japan, real wages declined for a sixth consecutive month, falling 1.3% year-on-year in June, signaling ongoing strain on consumer spending and domestic demand. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.81(SMA 20)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.54(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.76(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.08(July 24th high).
Equities Recap
European shares rose further on Wednesday as investors bought the dip, shrugging off new U.S. tariff threats and digesting mixed corporate earnings.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.39 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.31 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Wednesday as rising U.S. Treasury yields weighed on the metal, while investors stayed cautious ahead of President Trump’s upcoming Fed appointments.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,362.54/oz by 1047 GMT, after nearing a two-week high on Tuesday, while U.S. gold futures also dropped 0.5% to $3,417.30.
Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday from a five-week low, driven by Trump’s tariff threat to India over Russian oil and a larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventory draw.
Brent crude futures gained $1.11, or 1.6%, to $68.75 a barrel by 1119 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.12, or 1.7%, at $66.28 a barrel.