Posted at 04 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Swiss CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, -0.2%forecast ,0.2% previous
• Swiss CPI (YoY) (Jul) 0.2%, 0.1%forecast, 0.1% previous
French Car Registration (YoY) (Jul) -7.7% ,-6.7% previous
• EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug) 6.2 forecast, 4.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.968% previous
• 13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.977% previous
• 13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 1.973% previous
•14:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Jul) 107.83 previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jun) -9.4% forecast, 15.5% previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun) -4.9% forecast, 8.2% previous
•14:00 US Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (Jul) 16.00M forecast, 15.30M previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.235% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.120% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Monday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, recovering from Friday’s sharp decline that followed weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data. The July nonfarm payrolls report showed job growth falling short of forecasts, while prior months’ figures were revised down by a substantial 258,000 jobs, indicating a marked deterioration in labor market conditions. In response, markets are now pricing in over a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with expectations of nearly 60 basis points of easing by year-end. The shift reflects growing concern over slowing momentum in the U.S. economy. Investor focus now turns to upcoming U.S. data, particularly the ISM services PMI and weekly jobless claims, due later this week. Weaker-than-expected results could reinforce dovish expectations, while stronger data may prompt markets to scale back aggressive rate cut bets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1609(38.2%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1652(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.141 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1353(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling held steady on Monday as investors turned their attention to the Bank of England’s policy announcement on Thursday, with markets pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. The move reflects growing confidence that the BoE will begin easing policy amid signs of slowing economic activity.Traders are also factoring in an additional 25bps cut later this year, bringing expectations for a total of 50 basis points of easing by year-end. This outlook underscores the market’s view of a gradual shift toward a more accommodative stance.Beyond the widely anticipated rate cut, investors will be closely watching for forward guidance, particularly any signals regarding the future path of interest rates and potential adjustments to the pace of the BoE’s quantitative tightening (QT)—its balance sheet reduction program.At 12:15 GMT, the sterling was trading at 1.3296 up 0.11% against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3278(July31st high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3362(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3178(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3134(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Monday as investors reacted to disappointing U.S. employment data and growing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s policy independence. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report came in well below expectations, reinforcing speculation that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as early as September.The weak jobs print is increasingly seen as evidence that momentum in the U.S. labor market is fading, bolstering the case for monetary easing. However, the Fed faces a complex policy backdrop. While deteriorating employment data supports rate cuts, newly imposed tariffs are beginning to push inflation higher, forcing policymakers to balance conflicting pressures between supporting growth and maintaining price stability.This tension could complicate the Fed’s decision-making in the months ahead. In the near term, market attention turns to U.S. June factory orders, due this week, which may offer further insight into the broader health of the economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6480(July 31st high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6413(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6397(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against yen on Monday as greenback recovered some of its Friday’s losses . The weak jobs report has intensified speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates in September, with markets now assigning over a 90% probability to a 25bps rate cut at the next meeting. Traders are also pricing in nearly 60 basis points of easing by year-end, indicating growing confidence in a dovish policy shift.This week, investor focus shifts to key U.S. data, particularly the ISM services PMI and weekly jobless claims, both of which could prove pivotal in shaping the Fed’s next move. Softer readings may reinforce expectations of aggressive easing, while stronger data could limit the scope of rate cuts.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.81(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.80(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.14(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.47(61.8%fib)).
Equities Recap
European stocks ticked higher on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak, though Swiss equities plunged to a three-month low amid concerns over a steep 39% U.S. tariff on Switzerland.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.41 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.23 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.91 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Monday as slightly higher U.S. Treasury yields and profit-taking weighed on sentiment, following last week’s strong gains fueled by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data.
Spot gold lost 0.2% to $3,356.91 per ounce, as of 1051 GMT, after rising more than 2% on Friday.U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $3,410.20