Posted at 04 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (Jul) 0.9% 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug) 6.2 forecast, 4.5 previous
•09:00 Greek Unemployment Rate (Jun) 7.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Monday as the U.S. dollar staged a rebound following Friday’s sharp decline triggered by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Data on Friday showed U.S. employment growth undershot expectations in July while the nonfarm payrolls count for the prior two months was revised down by a massive 258,000 jobs, suggesting a sharp deterioration in labour market conditions.Markets are now pricing in a more than 90% chance the Fed will ease rates next month owing to the weaker-than-expected jobs data, with just under 60 basis points worth of cuts expected by December. Focus now turns to this week’s U.S. ISM services PMI and jobless claims, both of which could prove pivotal. Softer prints may reinforce the Fed's dovish tilt, while stronger-than-expected data could temper expectations of an aggressive policy shift. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1609(38.2%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1652(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.141 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1353(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Monday as markets braced for a crucial Bank of England (BoE) policy decision later this week. According to market pricing, there is now an 87% probability that the BoE will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its Thursday meeting, reflecting a strong consensus that the central bank will pivot toward easing amid slowing growth and disinflationary pressures.Despite the market's conviction, the decision is not expected to be unanimous. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely anticipated to remain split, with a faction of policymakers likely to advocate holding rates steady to monitor the persistence of underlying inflation and services-sector wage growth. This division reflects the BoE's delicate balancing act acknowledging recent cooling in headline inflation, while remaining wary of stickier components. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3278(July31st high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3362(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3178(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3134(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian firmed Monday as markets reacted to underwhelming U.S. job figures and increasing scrutiny over the Fed's independence. U.S. nonfarm payrolls data released on Friday came in significantly below expectations, reinforcing market speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.The jobs miss is being interpreted as a signal that the labor market is losing momentum, adding to the case for policy easing.The Fed now faces a complicated policy landscape. While weak jobs growth calls for rate cuts, the newly imposed tariffs are starting to feed into inflation, creating a conflict between growth and price stability objectives. This could make decision-making increasingly difficult for Fed policymakers in the months ahead. Looking ahead, markets will be watching for U.S. June factory orders on this week for further signs of economic softness. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6480(July 31st high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6413(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6397(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as greenback recovered some of its losses after Friday's slide. U.S. job growth stumbled in July, falling short of forecasts, while massive downward revisions to the prior two months totalling 258,000 paint a worrying picture of a labor market losing momentum. This week’s ISM services report and jobless claims figures will play a key role in determining whether the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive policy stance to support the economy.Markets are now assigning over a 90% probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. By December, traders are pricing in nearly 60 basis points of total easing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.81(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.80(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.14(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.47(61.8%fib)).
Equities Recap
Asian equities markets found support on Monday, lifted by hopes of lower U.S. interest rates, even as doubts lingered over the long-term credibility of American economic policy..
South Korea KOSPI was up 0.91% , Hang Seng was up 0.92 %, China’s A50 was up 0.52%%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Monday as investors booked profits after a sharp rise in the previous session on weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data that boosted expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.
Spot gold lost 0.1% to $3,360.62 per ounce, as of 0432 GMT. Bullion rose more than 2% on Friday. However, U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $3,412.80.
Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, trimming earlier declines, as markets braced for another OPEC+ supply increase in September and concerns over potential disruptions to Russian oil exports to India lent support.
Brent crude futures climbed 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $69.78 a barrel by 0647 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.52 a barrel, up 19 cents, or 0.28%. Both contracts closed about $2 a barrel lower on Friday.