Posted at 01 August 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.4%, 2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous
•UK Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, -0.9% previous
•HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.9, 51.7 forecast, 51.4 previous
· HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 48.2, 48.4 forecast, 48.1 previous
· HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 49.1, 49.2 forecast, 49.2 previous
· Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun): 1.0%, 1.4% previous
· Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): 0.6%, 0.3% forecast, -0.4% previous
· S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 51.7, 53.1 previous
· HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 49.8, 49.8 forecast, 49.5 previous
· S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 48.0, 48.2 forecast, 47.7 previous
· Eurozone Core CPI (MoM) (Jul): -0.2%, 0.4% previous
· Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Jul): 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
· Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
· Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jul): 2.0%, 1.9% forecast, 2.0% previous
· Eurozone CPI, n.s.a (Jul): 129.10 forecast, 129.10 previous
· Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jul): 2.4% forecast,2.4% previous
· Eurozone HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jul): -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
· 12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Jul) 3.8% forecast,3.7% previous
· 12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul): 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
· 12:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Jul): 34.2 forecast, 34.2 previous
· 12:30 US Government Payrolls (Jul): 73.0K previous
· 12:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul): -3K forecast, -7K previous
· 12:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul): 106K forecast, 147K previous
· 12:30 US Participation Rate (Jul): 62.3% previous
· 12:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul): 100K forecast, 74K previous
· 12:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Jul): 7.7% previous
· 12:30 US Unemployment Rate (Jul): 4.2% forecast, 4.1% previous
· 13:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 45.6 previous
· 13:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 49.5 forecast, 52.9 previous
· 14:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jun): 0.0% forecast, -0.3% previous
· 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul): 45.0 previous
· 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Jul): 46.4 previous
· 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 49.5 forecast, 49.0 previous
· 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul): 69.9 forecast, 69.7 previous
· 14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul): 4.4% forecast, 5.0% previous
· 14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul): 3.6% forecast, 4.0% previous
· 14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jul): 58.6 forecast, 58.1 previous
· 14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul): 61.8 forecast, 60.7 previous
· 14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Jul): 66.8 forecast, 64.8 previous
·17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
·17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 415 previous
·17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 542 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro weakened against the dollar on Friday as market sentiment turned cautious amid a fresh round of U.S. tariffs targeting dozens of countries. The latest measures included a 39% levy on Swiss exports, with steep tariffs also imposed on goods from Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan. Countries not individually named were hit with a base rate of 10%, as part of a broader trade push ahead of a Friday deadline.Meanwhile, a recent survey showed euro zone manufacturing edged closer to stabilization in July, lending support to the European Central Bank’s cautiously optimistic view of the region’s economic outlook.Investors now await the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due later in the day, following euro zone inflation data that held steady at the ECB’s 2% target for July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1609(38.2%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1652(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1390 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1353(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Friday as the U.S. currency rallied after President Donald Trump imposed new tariff rates on dozens of trade partners. Late Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed executive orders imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on U.S. imports from dozens of countries, utilizing emergency powers and pressuring foreign leaders ahead of his self-imposed Friday deadline. India faces 25% levies on its U.S.-bound exports, Taiwan 20%, Thailand and Malaysia 19%, while South Korea secured reduced 15% rates after intensive negotiations. Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, and Cambodia have already secured agreements. Sterling was last trading down 0.44% at $1.3149 against dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3278(July31st high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3362(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3144(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3134(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, following the announcement of a new round of so-called reciprocal tariffs by the United States, which reignited concerns over escalating global trade tensions. While Australia’s baseline tariff remains at a relatively low 10% the lowest among U.S. trade partners other countries now face levies as high as 41%. This disparity has provided some insulation for the Australian economy, though broader market risks persist.On the economic front, Australia’s Q2 Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 3.4% year-on-year, easing slightly from Q1’s 0.9% q/q and 3.7% y/y. The softer print points to a gradual cooling of upstream inflationary pressures.Looking ahead, all eyes are on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due Friday, a key data point that could shape near-term market sentiment and influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. Economists are forecasting a 110K increase in jobs for July.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6480(July 31st high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6413(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6397(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as traders positioned ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls report. According to a survey of economists, July payrolls likely rose by 110,000, following a gain of 147,000 in June. The projected figure would fall below the three-month average of 150,000, with forecasts ranging from flat growth to an increase of 176,000 jobs.Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been pushed from September to October, as rising tariffs begin to fuel inflation. Some economists now believe the window for further policy easing by the Fed this year is narrowing.Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan held its short-term interest rate steady at 0.5% on Thursday, in a unanimous decision, signaling no imminent change in its monetary policy stance. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.32(Higher BB)an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.20(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.90(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell to a 4-week low on Friday as fresh U.S. tariffs, including a 39% levy on Switzerland, raised investor concerns.
At GMT (12:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.50 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.84 percent, France’s CAC was down by 2.04 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Friday as investors sought safety following President Trump’s new tariffs on a wide range of countries, while attention turned to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,299.54 per ounce, as of 1119 GMT. However, bullion is down 1.4% so far this week.U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $3,351.40
Oil prices were little changed on Friday, but remained on track for a weekly gain, as investors assessed the potential impact of additional tariffs and sanctions imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Brent crude futures were down 35 cents, or 0.49%, at $71.35 a barrel by 1039 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 37 cents, or 0.53%, at $68.89.