Posted at 31 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun): 0.0%, -0.2% forecast, -0.7% previous
•German Import Price Index (YoY) (Jun): -1.4%, -1.6% forecast, -1.1% previous
•Switzerland Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun): 3.8%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Jul): 1.0%, 1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Jul): 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Jul): 0.9%, 0.8% forecast, 0.9% previous
•French PPI (YoY) (Jun): 0.2%, 0.0% previous
•French PPI (MoM) (Jun): -0.2%, -0.9% previous
•Germany Unemployment Change (Jul): 2K, 15K forecast, 10K previous
•Germany Unemployment Rate (Jul): 6.3%, 6.4% forecast, 6.3% previous
•Germany Unemployment (Jul): 2.970M, 2.972M previous
•Germany Unemployment n.s.a. (Jul): 2.979M, 2.914M previous
•Italy Monthly Unemployment Rate (Jun): 6.3%, 6.4% forecast, 6.5% previous
•Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jul): 2.3%, 2.3% previous
•Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.4%, 0.2% previous
•Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.3%, -0.1% previous
•Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jul): 1.9%, 1.8% previous
•Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jul): 2.2%, 2.2% previous
•Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.3%, 0.2% previous
•Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jul): 2.4%, 2.3% previous
•Italian CPI (MoM) (Jul): 0.4%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Italian CPI (YoY) (Jul): 1.7%, 1.5% forecast, 1.7% previous
•Italian HICP (YoY) (Jul): 1.7%, 1.6% forecast, 1.8% previous
•Italian HICP (MoM) (Jul): -1.0%, -1.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Italian PPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.5%, 1.7% previous
•Italian PPI (MoM) (Jun): 1.5%, -0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,960K forecast, 1,955K previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun): 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun): 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q2): 1.20% previous
•12:30 US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2): 0.8% forecast, 0.9% previous
•12:30 US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q2): 0.80% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 222K forecast, 217K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 224.50K previous
•12:30 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun): 2.5% forecast, 2.3% previous
•12:30 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun): 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Personal Income (MoM) (Jun): 0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous
•12:30 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun): 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
•12:30 US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jun): -0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (May): 4.43%
•12:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (May): -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•13:00 US Dallas Fed PCE (Jun): 2.00% previous
•13:45 US Chicago PMI (Jul): 41.9 forecast, 40.4 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage: 37B forecast, 23B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.245% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.265% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro posted modest gains against dollar on Thursday as investor caution persisted ahead of the looming August 1 U.S. tariff deadline set by President Donald Trump. Trade tensions remained in focus after Trump announced a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea, despite the two nations reaching a last-minute trade agreement. Additionally, Trump imposed a steep 50% tariff on most Brazilian goods, signaling a hardline approach. He also noted that trade negotiations with India were still ongoing, adding to global uncertainty. In the Eurozone, attention turns to key economic releases, including Germany’s preliminary inflation figures for July and the region’s unemployment rate for June both of which may influence the euro’s near-term direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1609(38.2%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1652(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1411(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1353(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Thursday as the U.S. dollar retreated amid U.S. tariff uncertainty ahead of the August 1 deadline. Trade negotiations intensified as the August 1 deadline approached. Trump said on Wednesday South Korea secured a deal with reduced 15% tariffs, down from a threatened 25%. The agreement came amid a flurry of last-minute negotiations.Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, Cambodia and Thailand have already clinched agreements, creating urgency for remaining economies Markets are now closely watching the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, due later this week. This release could influence expectations around future Fed rate moves. Sterling was last trading up at $1.3355. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3387(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3472(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3218(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3138(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian firmed against greenback on Thursday as upbeat Australian retail sales data boosted Australian dollar. Australian retail sales climbed 1.2% in June, accelerating from May’s 0.5% gain, sparking optimism about a potential recovery in consumer spending, ABS data showed. The increase beat expectations of a 0.4% rise, extending gains for a second month and recording the biggest monthly jump since March 2022.Despite upbeat spending data, interest rate expectations remain unchanged. Markets see a high likelihood of a 25bps RBA cut next month, with rates expected to reach a trough near 3.1% in early 2026. Meanwhile, Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the RBA, welcomed the latest inflation figures on Thursday, adding that the labour market continues to operate near full employment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.642(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6533(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6413(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6372(June 23rd low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower versus the yen on Thursday as Japanese yen firmed following the Bank of Japan's upward revision to its inflation forecasts and cautiously optimistic view on the economic outlook.The BOJ ended its two-day policy meeting by unanimously keeping short-term interest rates at 0.5%, while raising this fiscal year’s core consumer inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.2% previously. The central bank reaffirmed its commitment to raise borrowing costs if economic and price trends align with forecasts, noting that rising wages and prices are expected to drive underlying inflation closer to its 2% target.The BOJ's decision came after the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell's remarks dampening market expectations of a rate cut in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.32(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.09(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.60(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 147.63(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European equities gained modestly on Thursday, supported by solid corporate earnings from Safran and Rolls-Royce, with investors watching developments on trade deals after Trump’s latest tariff push.
At GMT (12:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up trading up at 0.41 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.36 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil edged lower on Thursday as a surprise U.S. crude stock build and Trump's tariff push for ending the Ukraine war raised supply concerns.
Brent crude futures for September , set to expire on Thursday, declined by 38 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.86 a barrel by 1203 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September fell 32 cents, also 0.5%, to $69.68.
Gold prices climbed over 1% on Thursday, rebounding from a one-month low hit in the prior session, as a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed U.S. tariff announcements boosted safe-haven demand.
Spot gold was up 0.9% at $3,305.15 per ounce, as of 1140 GMT. The bullion had hit its lowest level since June 30 at $3,267.79 on Wednesday.