Posted at 31 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul): 104K, 77K forecast, -23K previous.
• US Core PCE Prices (Q2): 2.5%, 2.4% forecast, 3.5% previous.
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 3.0%, 2.5% forecast, -0.5% previous.
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2): 2.0%, 2.2% forecast, 3.8% previous.
• US GDP Sales (Q2): 6.3%, -3.1% previous.
• US PCE Prices (Q2): 2.1%, 3.7% previous.
• US Real Consumer Spending (Q2): 1.4%, 0.5% previous.
• Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision: 2.75%, 2.75% forecast, 2.75% previous.
• US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun): -0.8%, 0.2% forecast, 1.8% previous.
• US Pending Home Sales Index (Jun): 72.0, 72.6 previous.
• US Crude Oil Inventories: 7.698M, -2.300M forecast, -3.169M previous.
• US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): -0.025M, 0.087M previous.
• US Crude Oil Imports: 1.317M, -0.740M previous.
• US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.690M, 0.455M previous.
• US Distillate Fuel Production: 0.130M, 0.095M previous.
• US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: 3.635M, -0.900M forecast, 2.931M previous.
• US Gasoline Production: 0.676M, 0.282M previous.
• US Heating Oil Stockpiles: 0.739M, 0.003M previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Jun): 8.0% forecast, 8.0% previous.
•01:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Jun): 1.8% forecast, 3.2% previous.
•01:30 Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q2): 2.1%. previous.
•01:30 Australia Housing Credit (Jun): 0.5% previous.
•01:30 Australia Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q2): -0.5% forecast, 3.3% previous.
•01:30 Australia Private House Approvals (Jun): 0.5% previous.
•01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jun): 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•01:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•01:30 Australia Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2): 0.0% previous.
•01:30 China Composite PMI (Jul): 50.7 previous.
•01:30 China Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 49.7% forecast, 49.7% previous.
•01:30 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 50.3% forecast, 50.5% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dampened investor hopes for a September rate cut, cautioning that it was “too soon” to consider easing. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% and noted moderating growth, offering little guidance on when policy might turn dovish. Two Trump-appointed governors—Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller—dissented, pushing instead for cuts. Meanwhile, copper prices tumbled on hefty U.S. tariff announcements. U.S. labor data added to dollar strength: ADP reported private payrolls rose by 104,000 in July, well above the 75,000 forecast and reversing a revised 23,000 June decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1578(Daily high ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1665(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1410(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1208(May 28th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations while resisting pressure from President Donald Trump. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9–2 to maintain the benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth straight meeting. Dissent came from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller both Trump appointees who favored a 25 basis point rate cut. Earlier in the session, stronger-than-expected U.S. data lifted the dollar, with second-quarter GDP expanding at a 3.0% annualized rate, above the 2.4% forecast. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3310(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.33392(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3189(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3088(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar slid to a two-month low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger greenback and dovish signals from the Bank of Canada. As expected, the BoC held its key interest rate at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting. While the central bank noted that the threat of a severe global trade war had eased, it left the door open to further rate cuts if economic weakness continues to dampen inflation and trade-related price pressures remain contained.Meanwhile, oil prices a key Canadian export rose 1.1% to $70.00 a barrel, and Canadian bond yields moved higher on a steeper curve.The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3822 per U.S. dollar , after touching its weakest intraday level since May 30 at 1.3828.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3844(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3901 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3698(SMA20 ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3589(23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar advanced against the yen on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%. The central bank noted that economic uncertainty remains elevated, with inflation still running above target and the labor market showing continued strength.Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented from the decision, favoring a 25 basis point rate cut in response to signs of softening private-sector activity.Chair Jerome Powell stated that economic uncertainty has not improved since June and emphasized the fluid nature of ongoing trade negotiations.The dollar had already gained earlier in the day, boosted by data showing U.S. GDP grew at a stronger-than-expected 3.0% annualized pace last quarter. Additionally, the ADP report showed a larger-than-forecast increase in private payrolls in July, setting the stage for Friday’s official jobs report. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.39(23.6%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.80(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.60(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 147.20(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares ended flat on Wednesday as investors assessed the potential earnings impact of new tariffs, following warnings from major firms like Adidas, Porsche, and Aston Martin about possible U.S. price increases.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.06 percent.
U.S. stocks ended sharply off their session highs on Wednesday after a volatile day, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampened hopes of a potential rate cut in September.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.38% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.12% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.15% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slid more than 1% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and offered no clear timeline for future cuts.
Spot gold was down 1.5% at $3,275.92 per ounce, as of 03:08 p.m. ET (19:08 GMT).U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% lower at $3,352.8.
Oil prices rose by 1% on Wednesday as markets reacted to President Donald Trump's push for a faster resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war and his renewed tariff threats targeting nations importing Russian oil.
The Brent crude September contract, which was set to expire on Thursday, closed 73 cents, 1.01%, higher at $73.24. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 79 cents, or 1.14%, at $70, with investors largely shrugging off mixed U.S. data on crude and fuel inventories.