Posted at 29 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK BoE Consumer Credit (Jun): 1.417B, 1.200B forecast, 0.920B previous
•UK M3 Money Supply (Jun): 3,142.0B ,3,133.7B previous
•UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Jun): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Mortgage Approvals (Jun): 64.17K, 63.00K forecast, 63.29K previous
•UK Mortgage Lending (Jun): 5.34B, 2.21B previous
•UK Net Lending to Individuals (Jun): 6.757B , 3.700B forecast, 2.900B previous
•EU Belgian GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 0.2% , 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun): 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (Jun): -0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY): 5.1% previous
•13:00 US House Price Index (YoY) (May): 3.0% previous
•13:00 US House Price Index (MoM) (May): -0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•13:00 US House Price Index (May): 434.9 previous
•13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (May): -0.3% previous
•13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (May): 0.8% previous
•13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (May): 2.9% forecast, 3.4% previous
•14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jul): 95.9 forecast, 93.0 previous
•14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Jun): 7.510M foreast 7.769M previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Jul): -4.1 previous
•14:30 US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Jul): -4.4 previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): 2.4% foreast, 2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped to a one-month low against the dollar on Tuesday, as markets reassessed the newly signed U.S.-EU trade agreement. Investors viewed the deal as heavily skewed in favor of Washington, doing little to support the eurozone's outlook. France's prime minister labeled the agreement a "dark day" for Europe, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned of "significant" economic damage.Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump warned Monday that countries failing to strike individual trade agreements with Washington could soon face export tariffs ranging from 15% to 20%—a sharp increase from the 10% blanket levy announced in April. The euro dropped as much as 0.5% to its lowest since June 23, last seen 0.36% down at $1.1543. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1602(Daily high ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1778(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1523(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1450(June 20th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped lower on Tuesday as the greenback extending its rally following Sunday’s announcement that the United States and the European Union had reached a framework trade pact.A newly introduced 15% tariff on most EU goods substantially higher than pre-2025 levels left investors reassessing trade and inflation risks.Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that, before the August 1 tariff deadline, a 15% to 20% world tariff' would be imposed on countries that do not pursue bilateral trade deals with the U.S.Looking ahead, investor focus turns to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, scheduled for Wednesday.The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, but investors will closely watch Chair Powell’s commentary and the vote split for signals on the likelihood of future rate cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3456(July 29th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3487(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3310(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3253(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Tuesday as renewed greenback strength weighed on Australian dollar. Trump's trade deal with Europe initially lifted market sentiment, but investors quickly realised the terms largely favoured the United States. This reinforced dollar strength, adding pressure on risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar. Market participants now turn their attention to Australia’s Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) due this week a critical inflation reading that may influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy outlook. Additionally, Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome will be closely watched for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Ahead of that, Tuesday’s release of U.S. consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings data, followed by the first estimate of Q2 GDP on Wednesday, could provide further momentum to the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6617(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6635(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6502(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6467(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar held firm against the yen on Tuesday as markets awaited key trade policy moves ahead of the August 1 deadline set by President Trump. A newly announced U.S.-EU framework trade deal featuring a 15% tariff on EU goods temporarily eased global trade tensions, though its perceived tilt in favor of the U.S. ultimately supported the greenback and weighed on regional currencies.Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese officials met for over five hours in Stockholm on Monday, aiming to extend their trade truce by another three months. Investor focus now shifts to upcoming central bank meetings, with policy decisions due this week from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.27(23.6%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.80(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.56(July 29th low)a break below could take the pair towards 146.73(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks ticked up on Tuesday, supported by a rally in EssilorLuxottica and a wave of corporate earnings, as investors evaluated the implications of the recent U.S.-EU trade agreement.
At GMT (12:28) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax was upby 1.22 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday as initial euphoria over the U.S.-EU trade truce ebbed, while investors looked forward to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting for clarity on the U.S. interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,320.04 per ounce, as of 1130 GMT. Bullion hit its lowest point since July 9 on Monday.U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $3,318.50.
Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday, supported by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and key partners, and renewed pressure from President Trump on Russia over the Ukraine conflict..
Brent crude futures were up 47 cents, or 0.7%, at $70.51 a barrel at 0924 GMT, having touched their highest since July 18, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.24, up 53 cents, or 0.8%.