Posted at 28 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul) -34, -28 forecast, -46 previous
•Irish GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -1.0%, 7.4% previous
•Irish GDP (YoY) (Q2) 12.5%,20.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.902% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.938% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 1.935% previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jul) -12.7 previous
•15:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 4.240% previous
•15:30 US 6-Months Bill Auction 4.115% previous
•16:00 US 2-Years Note Auction 3.786% previous
•16:00 US 5-Years Note Auction 3.879% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Monday as news of a U.S.–EU trade agreement boosted demand for the dollar. The framework agreement—hailed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the best possible outcome for the bloc—includes a 15% import tariff on most EU goods and commits the EU to $600 billion in U.S. investments, while granting the U.S. greater access to key sectors of the European market.Although the deal helps avert a potentially more damaging trade standoff between two blocs that together account for nearly one-third of global trade, several European capitals have criticized the agreement as heavily skewed in Washington’s favor. The euro eased 0.85% at $1.1658 after initially rising 0.3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1808(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1865(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1556(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened following the announcement of a framework trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. Meeting in Scotland on Sunday, President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that the deal includes a 15% import tariff on EU goods half the initially proposed rate slated to take effect from August 1.Looking ahead, investors are gearing up for a busy week packed with key central bank decisions and economic data. Markets will closely monitor monetary policy meetings from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, both of which are expected to leave interest rates unchanged. However, forward guidance and official commentary will be critical for assessing future rate paths. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3439(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Monday as the U.S. dollar gained strength following a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. President Donald Trump confirmed that the deal includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., alongside significant EU commitments to purchase American energy and military equipment.Market focus now shifts to Australia’s quarterly inflation report, due Wednesday, which is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy outlook. The central bank has been watching Q2 CPI data closely to determine whether inflationary pressures are easing. A stronger-than-expected reading could complicate expectations for a rate cut in August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6617(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6635(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6509(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6467(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as investors assessed the pace of future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. A reduction in global trade tensions—following Sunday’s trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union—offered relief to BOJ policymakers and improved prospects for Japan’s export-driven economy.Markets broadly expect the BOJ to leave short-term rates steady at 0.5% when its two-day policy meeting concludes on Thursday. Investor focus now turns to the central bank’s quarterly outlook report and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference for any signals on the timing of the next potential rate increase. At GMT 12:15, the US dollar was up 0.24% to 148.09 against the Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.27(23.6%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.80(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.85(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 146.73(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose slightly as the market cautiously digested news of a trade accord between the United States and the European Union.
At GMT (12:28) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.88 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.54 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Monday, as improved risk sentiment following the U.S.–EU trade agreement limited upside momentum.
Spot gold was flat at $3,335.87 per ounce as of 1035 GMT, after touching its lowest level since July 17 earlier in the day.
Oil prices rose on Monday as investors welcomed a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, which helped avert the imposition of 30% tariffs on most EU goods.
Brent crude futures were up 76 cents, or 1.1%, to $69.20 a barrel by 1028 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $65.90 a barrel, up 74 cents, or 1.1%.