Posted at 25 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): 0.6%, 1.2% forecast, -2.9% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun): 1.8%, 2.0% forecast, -1.2% previous
• UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): 0.9%, 1.2% forecast, -2.8% previous
• UK P Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun): 1.7%, 1.8% forecast, -1.1% previous
• German Business Expectations (Jul): 90.7, 91.1 forecast, 90.6 previous.
• German Current Assessment (Jul): 86.5, 86.7 forecast, 86.2 previous.
• German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul): 88.6, 89.0 forecast, 88.4 previous.
•EU M3 Money Supply (Jun): €16,915.4B, €16,919.7B previous.
•EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jun): 3.3%, 3.7% forecast, 3.9% previous.
•EU Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Jun): 2.7%, 2.5% previous.
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Jun): 2.2%, 1.9% forecast, 2.0% previous.
• US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
• US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun): -9.3%, -10.4% forecast, 16.4% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jun): -9.4%, 15.5% previous
•US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Jun): -0.7%, 0.2% forecast, 1.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 EU Belgium NBB Business Climate (Jul): -9.8 forecast, -10.1 previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (May): -23.88B previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (May): -43.15B previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 421 forecast, 422 previous
•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 544 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the dollar on Friday as the greenback strengthened on the back of solid U.S. economic data and optimism surrounding trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union. U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ending July 19 the lowest since April pointing to a resilient labor market, even as slower hiring makes it tougher for displaced workers to find new jobs. Additionally, U.S. business activity picked up pace in July, but rising input costs and pricing pressures led companies to raise prices on goods and services. This has fueled expectations of faster inflation in the coming months, driven in part by increasing import tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Friday as soft UK economic data continued to weigh on pound. British retail sales rebounded in June following a sharp decline in May, but still came in slightly below analysts' expectations, according to data released Friday. Retail sales volumes rose 0.9% month-on-month in June, partially recovering from May’s sharp 2.8% decline the steepest drop since December 2023.This followed Thursday’s reports showing only modest growth in business activity for July and the steepest job cuts in five months. Markets are currently pricing in an 87.9% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Bank of England at its next meeting. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching to see if the European Union can strike a trade deal with the U.S. ahead of President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3439(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped from an eight-month high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as investors booked profits ahead of a critical week for global markets. Attention now turns to U.S. President Donald Trump’s August 1 trade deadline, a key juncture that could decide whether fresh tariffs are imposed or negotiations progress. Adding to the uncertainty, investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where officials are expected to shed light on the interest rate outlook and economic trajectory. Domestically, focus shifts to Australia’s Q2 inflation data due Wednesday a crucial input for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6635(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6725(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6565(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6548(SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The dollar climbed against the yen on Friday, supported by upbeat U.S. data and optimism over progress in trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union. A rebound in risk appetite, fueled by hopes of easing tariff tensions, further lifted the greenback.Adding to the dollar’s strength, U.S. jobless claims dropped to a three-month low, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains resilient and reducing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Data showed initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 217,000 for the week ended July 19, signaling stable labor market conditions.Japan’s inflation data pointed to persistent price pressures. Core consumer inflation in Tokyo eased slightly in July but remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.9% year-on-year, bolstering expectations for another BOJ rate hike later this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.24(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.65(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.11(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Friday, reversing the previous session's gains, as investors weighed mixed corporate earnings and remained cautious ahead of key developments in EU-U.S. trade talks, with President Donald Trump's tariff deadline looming next week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.41 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.64 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices declined on Friday, weighed down by a strengthening U.S. dollar and renewed optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union.
Spot gold was down 0.7% at $3,343.0 per ounce by 1150 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.9% to $3,344.50.
Oil prices held steady on Friday, as optimism over U.S.-EU trade talks boosted sentiment around global economic growth and energy demand, offsetting concerns about a potential increase in supply from Venezuela.
Brent crude futures were up 38 cents, or 0.55%, at $69.56 a barrel by 1207 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 36 cents, or 0.55%, at $66.39.