Posted at 24 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•EU HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 48.4 ,48.5 forecast, 48.1 previous
•EU HCOB France Composite PMI (Jul) 49.6,49.3 forecast,49.2 previous
•EU HCOB France Services PMI (Jul) 49.7,49.7 forecast, 49.6 previous
• GfK German Consumer Climate (Aug) -21.5,-19.4 forecast,-20.3 previous
• EU HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 49.2,49.4 forecast, 49.0 previous
• EU HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jul): 50.1,50.0 forecast, 49.7 previous
• EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 49.8,49.7 forecast, 49.5 previous
• EU HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jul): 51.0,50.8 forecast, 50.6 previous
• EU HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jul): 51.2,50.6 forecast, 50.5 previous
• UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul): 51.0, 51.8 forecast, 52.0 previous
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 48.2, 47.9 forecast, 47.7 previous
• UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jul): 51.2,52.8 forecast, 52.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 EU ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 2.15% forecast, 2.15% previous
•12:30 US Building Permits (Jun): 1.397M forecast, 1.394M previous
•12:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Jun): -2.0% previous
•12:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity (Jun): -0.28 previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,960K forecast, 1,956K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 227K forecast, 221K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 229.50K previous
•12:30 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May): -0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jun): -0.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (May): -0.9% forecast, 0.3% previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 52.7 forecast, 52.9 previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul): 52.9 previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jul): 53.0 forecast, 52.9 previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (MoM) (Jun): -13.7% previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (Jun): 649K forecast, 623K previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage: 28B forecast, 46B previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Composite Index (Jul): -2 previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul): 5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•12:45 ECB Press Conference
•14:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: Euro eased against dollar on Thursday as traders brace for ECB monetary policy decision. The European Central Bank was poised to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, marking a pause after seven consecutive cuts. The decision comes as policymakers await clarity on Europe’s trade relationship with the United States, which remains clouded by ongoing tensions.Over the past year, the ECB has aggressively eased policy slashing its key rate from 4% to 2% in response to a sharp decline in inflation, which had surged following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.However, policy direction has become increasingly complex amid unpredictable trade negotiations between Washington and Brussels. A major source of concern is U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU exports to the U.S. a scenario harsher than the most severe of three outcomes the ECB had outlined last month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Thursday as renewed concerns over Britain’s economic health and looming tax increases dampened sentiment. UK government is preparing to raise taxes to address the growing fiscal deficit. Investors fear that such fiscal tightening could further pressure household spending and business investment, potentially dragging down economic growth. Earlier in the week, sterling had benefited from upbeat global risk sentiment tied to U.S. trade deal progress . Additionally, British business activity grew only weakly in July and employers cut jobs at the fastest pace in five months, according to a survey that is likely to add to speculation about a Bank of England interest rate cut next month.Traders are currently pricing in an 82.3% chance of a 25 basis point BoE cut next month Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3439(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar surged to an eight-month high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, supported by growing optimism surrounding global trade agreements, which boosted demand for riskier, higher-yielding currencies. The rally followed the announcement of a U.S.-Japan trade deal that eased fears of broad-based tariffs and raised hopes that more agreements could be on the horizon.The U.S. has also finalized trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines, while a potential pact with the European Union is reportedly close. According to European Commission officials, discussions are underway for a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European goods, with certain exclusions likely. These developments have strengthened global risk sentiment, spurring gains in risk assets and putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6635(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6725(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6582(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6548(SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Thursday as the Japanese currency held firm, buoyed by growing optimism around recent trade developments between the United States and several key partners. A series of trade agreements involving the U.S. and nations such as Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines has helped boost investor sentiment, reinforcing hopes for improved global trade dynamics.Adding to the positive mood, reports from EU diplomats indicated that Washington and Brussels are moving closer to a potential trade deal that could include a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, with certain exemptions—further signaling easing trade tensions.Meanwhile, markets remained cautious ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy decision due later in the day, with investors looking for clues on the eurozone’s monetary policy path amid persistent economic uncertainty. At GMT 11:30, the US dollar was down 0.02% to 146.48 against the Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.14(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.65(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.11(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks advanced on Thursday amid rising optimism over a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.95 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.51percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.04 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell further on Thursday, extending the previous session’s losses as improving trade sentiment reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $3,362.59 per ounce, as of 0930 GMT, after shedding 1.3% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.9% to $3,367.30.
Oil prices climbed on Thursday, supported by optimism surrounding U.S. trade talks and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude futures had gained 52 cents, or 0.76%, to $69.03 a barrel by 1040 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 60 cents, or 0.9% to $65.85 per barrel.